下面是小编为大家整理的德银2020汽车科技峰会要点,供大家参考。
Deutsche Bank Research
North America
United States
Consumer Autos & Auto Technology
Industry
Global AutoTech
Date
11 December 2019
Industry Update
DB 2019 AutoTech Conference Takeaways
We hosted our fourth annual AutoTech conference in San Francisco yesterday with 15 companies presenting. Overall, our team took away five lessons from the meetings: 1) OEMs are increasingly connecting their cars in an attempt to replicate Tesla‘s OTA capabilities and data analysis competence 2) With respect to Autonomous driving, it’s now all about Level 2+ while Level 4-5 seem further out than projected with regulation remaining a key hurdle to overcome 3) Mass market electrification is starting to kick in now 4) Silicon carbide is gaining rapid traction across major OEMs for EV main inverters, and 5) Auto Semi content continues to grow near double digits. This note also includes the key points from each company presentation.
Vehicle connectivity moving to mass market
Ford opened up our conference and talked about connectivity of its vehicles. Its target is to achieve 100% penetration in the US and 90% globally in 2020. Premium automakers have already started to roll out connected vehicles over the last decade but it seems mass market manufacturers are now following in an attempt to replicate Tesla‘s OTA and data analysis competence. Expected benefits include streamlined vehicle design and engineering, minimized recalls, superior user experience, increased touch points with customers throughout the lifecycle of the vehicle and recurring revenues.
Autonomous driving: more ADAS, less Level 4/5
Whilst there was a lot of excitement about fully autonomous cars at our previous conferences, this year‘s event confirmed that this technology is most likely still somewhat further out. Instead, the next couple of years will be characterized by fast rising adoption of Level 2+ product. Those still offer material content growth for involved suppliers. Veoneer estimates 95% of global light vehicle production will be L0-L2 in 2025. Regarding semi content, we believe this will benefit players such as ST or NXP, with broad-based connectivity portfolios while Infineon should benefit through its Cypress acquisition (once the deal is closed).
Electrification accelerating
It seems a given for just about all participants that mass market electrification is kicking in now, driven by regulation but also consumer environmental (and social) concerns. Few companies attending yesterday provided any detailed adoption estimates, but we believe they largely share our EV projections in the teens by 2025 and >25% by 2030.
Ross Seymore Research Analyst Emmanuel Rosner, CFA Research Analyst Johannes Schaller Research Analyst
Tim Rokossa Research Analyst
Melissa Weathers Research Associate Edison
Yu Research Associate JiHyung Yoo Research Associate Sidney Ho Research Analyst
Conor Walters Research Associate
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Silicon carbide: going mainstream
Silicon carbide is becoming a mainstream technology with almost all EV makers engaged in some design activities. The substrate supply bottleneck appears to be less of an issue following Cree‘s major capacity expansion announcement in the summer and 2021/22 should see a wave of new SiC-based EVs coming to market, with major initiatives by European and global OEMs.
Semi content: Auto semis once again expected to outgrow overall semis market The combination of expecting more stable global autos SAAR y/y in 2020 and content gains is expected to yield 9% growth in Auto-related semiconductor
revenue (vs. a 2% decline in 2019E), outgrowing the broader semis industry. This outperformance is expected to be driven by both semiconductor content gains in electric vehicle applications (BMS, SiC, etc.) as well as autonomous vehicle applications (sensing, in-vehicle connectivity, processing, etc.)
DB AutoTech Overview
Figure 1: Revenue growth y/y
Source : SIA, Company reports, Deutsche Bank estimates
Figure 2: Rising content remains a key driver of Auto Semi growth
Source : Deutsche Bank Figure 3: Semi content per car (in $)
Source : Deutsche Bank
Figure 4: Semi Content per car (in$)
Source : Deutsche Bank
Takeaways by company
Ambarella
We hosted Ambarella"s Fermi Wang, CEO at our 2019 DB AutoTech Conference, and summarize our key takeaways below.
Video processing & system expertise differentiators in Auto CV solutions Ambarella is leveraging its 15 years of video compression and image processing IP/expertise and taking an "algorithm first" approach in developing its programmable Computer Vision platform. The co has invested $350m in its CV platform with its solutions targeted to address the Automotive, Robotics, and IP Security markets. Within the Automotive Camera market, AMBA sees growth driven by video recorders, forward facing ADAS, eMirrors, in-cabin recorders, surround cameras, and systems for autonomous vehicles, with the aggregate SAM growing from ~$1.5b in 2018 to $5b+ by 2025. Among these opportunities, auto video recorders (dashcams) for the OEM and aftermarket represented ~20% of AMBA"s FY19 total revenues (2018-2025E SAM CAGR +8%), with forward facing ADAS, eMirrors, in-cabin recorders, surround and AD representing largely new opportunities for the co"s existing and new CV solutions. For the forward facing ADAS camera market (2018-2025E SAM CAGR +6%), AMBA views its open CV SoC platform and performance/power characteristics as enabling the co to penetrate this market, as evidenced by the co"s partnership with HELLA (Tier 1 supplier). For in-cabin recorders the co sees growth driven by driver monitoring system (DMS) requirements (2018-2025E SAM CAGR +39%+), with the high performance/low power system requirements for multiple in-cabin cameras addressed by the co"s CV2 and CV22 solutions. AMBA noted that it has focused on developing ASIL qualified silicon over the last 3 years, with the goal to have ASIL qualified silicon soon.
DB take - Optimistic on CV opportunity, though shares remain fully valued AMBA sees its historical expertise in video compression and image processing including in challenging situations (eg. low light, contrasting lighting), as well as its know how in system implementation enabled by its VisLab acquisition and autonomous car development as a key differentiator vs. competitors in providing high quality image processing and video compression for multiple cameras in L1- L5 applications. We remain impressed by the co"s execution and technology leadership, particularly as trade-related uncertainties remain elevated (legally shipping to co"s on U.S. Entity list who already have excess inventory of ~5% of AMBA sales). Overall, we remain positive on the longer-term CV opportunity in Automotive and IP Security and the co"s recent progress (e.g., Mercedes commercial trucking design win), but at ~52x our CY21 PF EPS estimate, we view AMBA shares as fully valued as they reflect a premium for LT CV optimism and take- out potential beyond near-term pull-in dynamics. Consequently we maintain our Hold rating.
Cree We hosted CREE"s CFO Neill Reynolds in the Electrification of Vehicles panel at our 2019 DB AutoTech Conference. We summarized our key takeaways below.
CREE agrees that incentives and government regulations will drive electric vehicle (EV) adoption, but it is also important for the industry to drive down cost and improve areas such as charge times, power efficiency and driving range, which silicon carbide (SiC) will play a vital role. CREE believes once cost comes down, it will be a relative decision for consumers to pay for better performance that EVs offer.
CREE believes the adoption of SiC is already at a tipping point, highlighting that 90% of major OEMs indicate they plan on using SiC in their main traction inverters, versus less than 5% in a survey that was done two years ago. The transition is well underway, with vehicles in development today for production 3-4 years out replacing silicon IGBT with SiC to take advantage of better performance at the systems level.
CREE currently has more than 60% share in merchant silicon carbide substrate market. The company has announced capacity expansion plans of $720m over the next 5 years with more than half of the budget will be spent on SiC materials to support the expected increase in EV adoption rate. While there will also be capacity expansion by other suppliers, CREE believes it is important to maintain its leadership position.
While some customers have expressed interest to build their own SiC capacity (e.g. STM in an earlier presentation suggested that it has a target to procure 50% of its SiC needs internally), CREE views that as an endorsement of the SiC market. CREE estimates the transition from silicon to SiC could grow the SiC materials market by more than 5x over the next 5 years. CREE plans to have enough capacity to address all its customers needs given SiC is a very difficult material to work with (implying other suppliers may have difficultly yielding).
DB take
We continue to be impressed with the accelerating growth opportunities of silicon carbide and CREE"s leadership position in the market. We are also encouraged to see CREE recently maintain its expectations for Wolfspeed gross margins over 50%. That said, the company continues to face some meaningful near-term headwinds for its Chinese business. With the valuation of the stock already reflecting strong growth opportunity for the Wolfspeed business, we wait for a better entry point and maintain our Hold rating.
Ford Motor Company
We hosted the CEO of Ford Credit and former VP of Ford’s Mob...
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