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al n
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Re
C OR E
U.S.
Mult i - I ndust ry
Catalysts
and
Qu estions
fo r Manag ement
Teams
for Q 320
A h ea d
of
indus t r ia l
c on fer en c es
a n d
inv es t or
m ee t ing s
i n
t h e
week s
a h ea d ,
we p r ov id e
a
lis t
of ques t ion s
for
US
Mu lt i - I n d us t r y
m a n a gem e n t
t ea m s ,
a s
well
a s
link s t o
r ec en t
s a lien t
r ep or t s .
O ur
ques t ion s
t en d
t o
ex c lud e
n ea r - t erm
d e m a n d ques t ion s ,
a s
we
a ss um e
t h os e
a r e
a s ked
a n yway
in
a ll
m ee t ing s .
I NDU S T RY
UPD A T E
U . S .
M u l t i - I n d u s t r y PO SI TI V E Unc hang e d
U . S .
M u l t i - I n d u s t r y J u lia n
M it c hell
+ 1
212
526
1661
E qu ity
R e s ear c h
18
A ug us t
2020
Br oa d
t op ics
t h a t
we
h op e
t o
h ea r
m or e
c olor
on :
( i )
H ow
mu c h
b e t te r
than
n or m al s eas on ality
i s
d e m an d
i n
Q 3
a s
c u s tom e r
s pe n di ng
‘ c at c h e s
up’
f oll owi ng
a
v e ry
w eak Q 2
–
are
w e
s eei ng
n or m al
or
f e w e r
than
n or m al
s umm e r
plan t
s hu td own s
f or
i n s ta n c e , an d
h as
th e
extr aor di n ar y
R e s i
/
C on s um e r
( AC s ,
Tools ,
&
P ools )
b ou n c e
i n
Ju n e / Ju l y f ad e d
s h ar p l y ?
( ii )
Re g i on al
c olor
-
i s
C h i n a
de m an d
pl ate au i ng ,
or
c on ti nu i ng
to i m pr ove
m on th - on - m o n th ?
I n
th e
U S
an d
W
E u r ope ,
to
w h at
exte n t
are
th e
s tu bb or n l y h i gh
C ovi d
c ase
c ou n ts
i n
c e r tai n
r e g i on s
w ei gh i ng
on
bu s i n e ss
i n v e s tm e n t
/
i ndu s trial s pe n di ng ?
( iii )
Re s i d e n tial ,
Au t o,
H eal th c are
ele c ti v e
s u r g e ry
/
or al
c are
m arke ts
s ee m to
b e
b e n e f iti ng
f r om
a
Sna p b ac k
n ow
–
w h at
oth e r
m arke ts
a r e
s ta r t i ng
to
s h ow
s i gn s of
li f e ?
( i v)
I n
C om m e r c ial
ae r ospa c e
afte r m arke t ,
c om pa n ie s
talke d
dow n
th e
2 H
an d talke d
u p
th e
d elta
b e t w ee n
th e
pi c k- u p
i n
f li gh t
h ou r s ,
an d
th ei r
own
s ale s
t r aj e c tor y
– i s
th i s
pl ayi ng
ou t
as
th e y
th ou gh t?
(v)
I n
B u il di ng s ,
to
w h at
exte n t
are
c om m e r c ial bu il di ng s
ope r at or s
n ow
i n v e s ti ng
i n
v ari ou s
( c le an
ai r ,
tou c h le ss ,
e t
al . )
s olu ti on s
to de al
w i th
C ovi d,
o r
are
th e y
i n
‘ w ai t
an d
s ee ’
m ode
r e g ar di ng
v ac c i n e s ,
bu il di ng oc c u pa n c y
r ate s ?
(v i )
H ow
do
c om pa n ie s
th i n k
th at
t h e
u p c om i ng
U S
ele c ti on s
w ill aff e c t
th ei r
top - li n e s
n ea r
t e r m
i f
at
all ,
an d
bottom
li n e s
m e d i um - te r m
pote n tiall y
( tax r ate s ) ?
(v i )
Cap ital
d e ploy m e n t
–
m an y
C E O s
are
m or e
w illi ng
to
u s e
b al an c e
s h ee ts n ow,
bu t
to
w h at
exte n t
are
h i gh
e qu ity
m arke t
v al u ati on s
r e n de r i ng
M & A
tough
to exe c u te
on
( DOV ,
E M R,
E TN,
HO N
m ay
b e
s om e
of
th e
m or e
likel y
ac qu i r e r s ) ?
St oc ks
t h a t
we
t hink
c ould
off er
inter es t ing
up d a t es
by
Q 3
ea r n ing s :
( i )
F T V ’ s
I PO
of V on tie r
c ou l d
oc c u r
i n
Q 3
–
s pi n
li mb o
h as
b e c om e
a
m aj or
‘ ove r h an g ’
on
th e
s toc k;
( ii ) GE
h as
a
h abit
of
g i v i ng
i n tra - qu arte r
FCF
u pd ate s ;
w e
th i n k
i n v e s tor s
e xpe c t
a
gu i de
f or a
FCF
outflow
of
~$ 1 - 2 bn
i n
Q 3 ;
w e
m ay
al s o
h ear
an
u pd ate
on
th e
s c ale
of
fu r th e r w r ite - dow n s
a t
A v iati on
an d
G E C AS;
( iii )
HD S
i s
du e
to
c om pl ete
i ts
s ale
of
W h ite
Cap s oon ;
( i v)
M on th l y
orde r s
f r om
E MR
( e s p.
r e g a r di ng
Au tom ati on
Solu ti on s ) ,
an d m on th l y
s ale s
f r om
MMM
( to
w h at
exte n t
i s
Ju l y ’ s
b ou n c e
b ei ng
s u s tai n e d).
P os it ion ing :
Th e r e
h as
b ee n
c on s i de r abl e
i n te r e st
i n
HV AC
r e g ar di ng
‘ c le an
ai r ’ ,
‘ e n e r g y e ff i c ie n c y ’ ,
‘ w or k
f r om
h om e ’
th e m e s .
Th e
st r on g
I SM
n e w
or d e r s
an d
b r oad e r c om m e n ta ry
h as
s pa r ke d
s o m e
r e n e w e d
i n te r e st
i n
Sh or t
C y c le
I ndu s trial
s toc ks. Sh or te r - te r m
i n v e s tor
pos iti o n i ng
appe ar s
leas t
f av or ably
di s po s e d
tow a r ds
ALL E , C ARR ,
G E ,
RO K ,
TT,
an d
m os t
f av or ably
di s pos e d
tow a r ds
DOV ,
FTV ,
JC I ,
O T I S,
PH .
For
ou r
v ie w s
on
r e c e n tl y - c on c l u de d
Q 2
ear n i ng s ,
pl ease
s ee
ou r
r e por t
-
LfE :
Q3 sea sona li ty;
S n a pb a c ks
sp r ead ;
S i emen s,
Da i kin
o u tl oo ks .
W e
s h ow
i n s i d e
u pc om i ng c atal y sts
an d
( n ow
pot e n tial )
i n v e s tor
d ay s .
j ul i an. m it c he ll @ b ar c la y s . c o m BC I ,
US
Jo ao
P e d r o
C ar v al ho
+ 1
212
526
8431
j o ao . c ar v al ho @ b ar c l ay s . c o m BC I ,
US
T r is h
Go r m an
+ 1
212
526
9154
t r is h. g o r m an @ b ar c l ay s . c o m BC I ,
US
Gavi n
M c C l anaha n
+ 1
212
526 - 3717
g av i n. m cc l anaha n @ b ar c l ay s . c o m BC I ,
US
B a r c la y s
C a p i t al
I n c .
a n d / o r
o n e
o f
i ts
a ff ilia t e s
d o e s
a n d
s ee ks
t o
d o
bu s i n e ss
w i t h c o m p a n ie s
c o v e r e d
i n
i ts
r e s ea r c h
r e p o r ts .
A s
a
r e s u l t ,
i n v e st o r s
s h o u l d
b e
a w a r e
t h a t
t h e f i r m
m a y
h a v e
a
c o nf li c t
o f
i n t e r e st
t h a t
c o u l d
a ff e c t
t h e
o b j e c t i v i t y
o f
t h i s
r e p o r t .
I n v e st o r s s h o u l d
c o n s i d e r
t h i s
r e p o r t
a s
o n l y
a
s i ng le
f a c t o r
i n
m a k i ng
t h ei r
i n v e st m e n t
d e c i s i o n .
P L E A S E
S EE
A N A L Y S T
C E R T I F I C A T I O N ( S )
A ND
I M PO R T A N T
D I S C L O S U R E S
BE G I NN I N G
O N
P A G E
144 .
C ON TEN TS
MU LT I - IN D U S TR Y
REC E N T
HIG H LIG H TS
–
LIN KS
TO
NOT E S
......... 4
U PCOM ING
E V E NTS
/
CA TA LYS TS
...................................... 5
S E CTO R
PE RF OR MA NC E :
HO W
D ID
TH E
COM PANIES
/
S TO CKS PE RF OR M
OVE R
T HE
MO S T
RECE NT
E A RNIN G S
S E A S ON?
........... 6
A LLEG ION
................................................................... 7
CA RR IE R
................................................................... 12
COLF A X
.................................................................... 18
D OVE R
..................................................................... 21
E MERSON
E LECTRIC
..................................................... 25
E A TO N
..................................................................... 29
S PX
FL OW
................................................................. 33
FORT IV E
................................................................... 36
G A TES
IND U S TR I A L
...................................................... 39
G E NE RAL
E LECTRIC
...................................................... 42
HD
S U PPLY
................................................................ 48
HO NE YW E LL
.............................................................. 50
ING E RSOLL
RA ND
........................................................ 56
JOHNSON
CONTR OLS
.................................................... 60
KENNAM E TA L
............................................................ 64
LENNOX
................................................................... 67
MMM
...................................................................... 71
NV E NT
..................................................................... 77
OT IS
WORLD WIDE
....................................................... 81
PAR KER
HA NNI FIN
....................................................... 86
PE NTA IR
................................................................... 90
REG A L
B E LOIT
............................................................ 93
REX NOR D
................................................................. 96
RO CKWE LL
A U TO MA T ION
.............................................. 99
RO PER
TECH
............................................................. 103
S TA NLEY
B LA CK
&
D E CKER
............................................ 108
TR A NE
TECHNO LO G IE S
................................................ 113
Mul ti - In dustry
R ecent
H i g hl i g hts
–
Li nks
to
N otes
K ey
th em es
w e
r ec ently
e x pl o r ed :
Sec t or
Not es :
I.
2020
Outlo o k;
Learn i n gs
fr o m
t h e
p a st
dec a d e;
Dec em b er
12
2019
II.
U S
M u lti - I ndu str y :
Co mm er c i a l
Aer o
E st.
Cuts
#2
( E T N ,
GE ,
HO N ,
PH ,
U TX ) ;
V - sh a p ed
r eb o und
i n
‘2 1
is
n o t
a
gi ven ;
M a r c h
25 ,
2020
III.
U S
M u lti - I ndu str y :
T w o - y ea r
M I
bea r
m a r ket
m a y
d r a w
to
a
c l o se;
Up gr a d e
I ndu str y
vie w ,
I R ;
M a r c h
30 ,
2020
IV.
Gl o b a l
M u lti - I ndu str y :
M ea su r i ng
th e
F l o w :
Pr iva te,
Pu b li c
Pr o c ess
Au tom a ti o n
Co .
U pd a tes;
M a y
15 ,
2020
V.
U S
M u lti - I ndu str y :
U S
" o n sh o r i n g"
CO F ,
U S - China
ten si o n s
-
I mp li c a ti o n s
( R OK
i n
focu s);
M a y
17 ,
2020
VI.
U S
M u lti - I ndu str y :
E nd - M a r ket
Outlo o k
–
R E S E T
F r a m ewo r k,
C o n sen su s
d i sc o nnec ts;
M a y
21 ,
2020
VII.
U S
M u lti - I ndu str y :
M a n a gem en t
Co mp en sa ti o n ,
Co r p o r a te
Boa r d
S tr u c tu r es;
M a y
28 ,
2020
VIII.
U S
M u lt...
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