下面是小编为大家整理的可替代能源：调整COVID-19近期预期,供大家参考。
Alternative
Energy
Adjusting
Near-Term
Estimates
for
COVID-19
North America Equity Research 27
March
2020
COVID-19 containment is retarding residential solar deployments,
where sales and installation cycles are short and field personnel meet customers face to face. C&I projects are also slowing, but utility-scale solar and wind have solid momentum heading into the summer owing to long installation cycles.
Over
the
long
term,
increasingly
favorable
unit
economics
and growing
interest
in
energy
resilience
and
independence
will
drive renewables-plus-storage
growth
beyond
the
COVID-19
slowdown,
asset- backed
finance
should
remain
accessible
to
much
of
the
industry,
and sidelined
ESG
investors
should
return
to
renewables
as
quickly
as
they departed on the oil shock. In the short term it might be safer to focus on utility-scale
solar
and
wind
(FSLR,
CSIQ,
TPIC),
but
DG-solar
stocks look
attractively
valued
relative
to
growth
(e.g.,
SEDG
and
ENPH),
or they
are trading
at
or
below
the NAV
of
their
customer
portfolios
(e.g., RUN
and
NOVA).
We
recommend
long-term
investors
build
positions across the sector during the COVID-19 slump because we do not foresee lasting damage to the Alt Energy growth theme. Based on recent news and interactions
with many
management teams we provide status updates for many of the stocks under coverage, and we are adjusting some estimates. Social
distancing
may
weigh
on
resi
solar
deployments.
Distributed solar is a
short-cycle business,
and
door-to-door sales activity could be negatively
impacted
by
social
distancing.
We
understand
that,
so
far, solar
installations
are
deemed
essential
in
some
states
with
mandated stay-at-home
policies
(e.g.,
California),
which
should
provide
some buffer
for
companies
to
deploy
existing
backlog,
though
replenishment of that backlog may be strained by lower new sales and some permitting delays. The Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) has warned that COVID-19 could cause the industry to lose up to half of its ~250k person workforce as a result.
IT
Hardware,
Alternative
Energy Paul
Coster,
CFA
AC
(1-212)
622-6425
paul.coster@jpmorgan.com
Bloomberg
JPMA
COSTER
<GO>
Mark
Strouse,
CFA
(1-212)
622-8244
mark.w.strouse@jpmorgan.com
Paul
J
Chung
(1-212)
622-5552
paul.j.chung@jpmorgan.com
J.P.
Morgan
Securities
LLC
Equity
Ratings
and
Price
Targets
Company
Ticker
Mkt
Cap ($
mn)
Price
($)
RatiCur
ng
Prev
Cur
Price
Target
End
Prev Date
End Date
Bloom
Energy
BE
US
905.07
5.58
OW
n/c
14.00
Dec-20
n/c
n/c
Canadian
Solar
CSIQ
US
1,052.29
17.42
N
n/c
22.00
Dec-20
n/c
n/c
Enphase
Energy
ENPH
US
4,437.98
36.19
OW
n/c
49.00
Dec-20
51.00
n/c
First
Solar,
Inc
FSLR
US
3,996.26
37.62
OW
n/c
76.00
Dec-20
n/c
n/c
Hannon
Armstrong
HASI
US
1,409.56
20.82
OW
n/c
37.00
Dec-20
42.00
n/c
Ormat
Technologies
ORA
US
3,427.57
66.77
N
n/c
74.00
Dec-20
n/c
n/c
SolarEdge
Technologies
SEDG
US
4,770.45
90.45
OW
n/c
133.00
Dec-20
141.00
n/c
Sunnova
NOVA
US
1,059.00
12.61
OW
n/c
18.00
Dec-20
22.00
n/c
SunPower
Corporation
SPWR
US
1,008.06
6.38
N
n/c
10.00
Dec-20
12.00
n/c
Sunrun
Inc.
RUN
US
1,541.93
12.38
OW
n/c
21.00
Dec-20
25.00
n/c
TerraForm
Power,
Inc.
TERP
US
3,608.29
16.00
N
n/c
16.00
Dec-20
15.00
n/c
TPI
Composites
TPIC
US
500.69
14.28
N
n/c
24.00
Dec-20
n/c
n/c
Source:
Company
data,
Bloomberg,
J.P.
Morgan
estimates.
n/c
=
no
change.
All
prices
as
of
26
Mar
20.
See page 45 for analyst certification and important disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. www.jpmorganmarkets.com
Paul
Coster,
CFA (1-212)
622-6425
paul.coster@jpmorgan.com
North
America
Equity
Research
27
March
2020
But
resi
solar
portfolios
look
relatively
un-impacted.
Resi
solar
leases provide
home
owners
savings
of
~10-20%
on
average
compared
to
their local utility, which we believe should make lease payments a relatively high priority
for
lessees.
In
its
latest
presentation,
RUN
provided
detail
on customer
defaults
dating
back
to
the
2008/09
recession,
with
losses consistently
hovering
around
just
1%.
Note
that
NOVA’s
and
RUN’s portfolio of assets have a value of ~$13.50 and ~$12 per share using a 6% discount rate, which we believe should provide downside support for these stocks. Utility-scale
projects
are
still
proceeding.
Utility-scale
solar,
typically deployed in remote locations, has long deployment cycles and is unlikely to be much impacted by COVID-19 from a labor perspective. Jinko (JKS/not covered) stated that COVID-19 had no material impact on operations, 400- 500MW of panel production slipped from 1Q to 2Q, and the firm reiterated 2020
shipment
guidance
and
capacity
expansion
plans.
Canadian
Solar (CSIQ/N)
has
also
seen
a
quick
recovery
in
operations,
and
management indicated that it has not seen any disruption in its utility-scale deployments. Capital
markets
disruption
possible.
To
the
extent
that
COVID-19 weighs
on
corporate
profits,
the
lower
tax
burden
by
some
industry participants
may
result
in
reduced
tax
equity
market
activity.
Also,
some covered
companies
have
noted
their
view
that
access
to
the
unsecured corporate debt market is closed. Other avenues remain available, including life
insurance
funds
(HASI)
and
commercial
ABS
(RUN,
NOVA).
While rates
on
US
treasuries
have
declined
since
February,
ABS
spreads
may widen, potentially negatively impacting profitability for resi solar installers. Balance sheets in good shape generally. Five companies under coverage have
net
cash
positions
on
their
balance
sheets
(ENPH,
FSLR,
NOVA, SEDG, RUN). Only BE and ORA have material recourse debt maturities in 2020. Since 4Q19, BE has been in active discussions to refinance $289mm of convertible debt that is due in December 2020 and expects a resolution during
1H.
We
also
expect
ORA
to
be
able
to
address
its
2020
debt maturity
of $167mm
due to its strong cash from operations and relatively low recourse debt ratio (<1.5x). We recently touched base with several companies under coverage. See below for our key takeaways.
Takeaways from conversations with covered companies Bloom Energy (BE/OW) – BE’s stock has declined 39% since 3/6. The company reported 4Q results on 3/16. BE closed out 2019 with an encouraging 4Q print but issued weaker than expected 1Q guidance, notwithstanding strong bookings momentum and record backlog. Management tone was constructive regarding 2020 prospects, citing 2H19 order momentum, though a bit difficult to reconcile with both the lackluster guide and downside risks facing to installation activity owing to COVID-19. The stock looks positioned as a potentially exciting second half story.
Within our Alt Energy coverage, BE has the highest net debt/EBITDA ratio at over 4x (net recourse debt excluding restricted cash). BE has been in active discussions since 4Q19 to refinance $289mm of convertible debt that is due in December 2020 and expects a resolution during 1H. We are leaving our estimates unchanged. Our price target remains $14.
Canadian Solar (CSIQ/N/Strouse) – CSIQ’s stock has declined 14% since 3/6. The company reported 4Q results on 3/26. 4Q results and 1Q guidance were strong, though the company issued FY20 revenue guidance that was below consensus and the range was wider than usual, reflecting uncertainty from COVID-19. CSIQ began to see some delays and weakening in demand over the past few days, and it anticipates a greater impact to residential and C&I demand in the US and Europe.
We believe CSIQ is well positioned to weather a prolonged downturn owing to a net debt/EBITDA ratio of just 1.7x and no significant debt maturities in FY20. Our price target is $22.
Enphase Energy (ENPH/OW/Strouse) – ENPH’s stock has declined 32% since 3/6. The company did not experience any change in customer behavior until the weekend of 3/14 and California’s shelter-in-place order on 3/16. ENPH expects a significant impact to demand in CA, NY, and NJ. ENPH is considered an essential service in CA, so installation activity can proceed, though permitting can be impacted in certain jurisdictions where agencies are closed, and door-to-door sales activity for installers is “not existent.” Encouragingly, other regions are still going strong (Texas, southeast US). We also expect the company’s planned expansion in Europe, detailed at the December Analyst Day, will be temporarily pushed back. On a positive note, ENPH (and SEDG) enjoy healthy balance sheets with net cash positions, which could lead to market share gains vs. competitors that aren’t well capitalized in the event of a prolonged downturn (industry standard is a 25-year product warranty).
ENPH’s expense base is highly variable owing to outsourced manufacturing, so the company expects gross margins to be stable. The company can also flex opex as needed, and ENPH expects to remains cash flow positive under most scenarios.
We are trimming our near-term estimates but leave FY21 largely unchanged. Our price target goes to $49 from $51. See below for more details.
First Solar (FSLR/OW) – FSLR’s stock has declined 13% since 3/6. We believe FSLR’s utility-scale driven business model will likely prove relatively more resilient than those focused on resi/C&I, assuming the COVID-19 disruption proves temporary. There may be some risks from nationwide shutdowns in regions where FSLR manufactures (e.g., Ohio, Malaysia, Vietnam), though the company announced on 3/26 that its facilities are deemed essential an...
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