下面是小编为大家整理的矿工价格评论【精选推荐】,供大家参考。
G l o b al R e sear c h
27
Mar ch
2020
UB S
G lob a l
I/ O :
M i n e rs"
Pri c e
Re v i e w
Air
P ocke t
UB S
V i e w: M a i n ta i n
ma rke t
we i g h t
thro u g h
g o l d
& d i v ers i fi e d
mi n ers
An un ex p ec ted
s tart to
2020 w i th
COV I D -19 dom i na t i ng di s c u ss i o ns
a nd e qui t y
m a rk e t p erforman c e.
G i v en
th e
ri s k o ff
b eh av i our an d fl i gh t
to
s afe
h av en
a sse t s
suc h a s
go ld , th e
mi n i ng s ec to r p red om i n an t l y
th rough go l d eq u i ti es
h as
ou tp erformed . M SCI
Wo rl d M ini ng i s
down 22%
Y T D , f a r i ng s li ght l y
be tt e r t ha n M S C I
Wor l d w hi c h i s
down 24% . I ron o re
p ri ce
h as
fi rmed
as
C h i n a
retu rn s
to
w ork an d s upp l y
d i s ap po i nt s , w hil e
ba s e metal s
h ave
d ec li n ed
on
d e man d
c on c ern s .
O il
h as
d ec li n ed
th e
mo s t
as
red u c ed d eman d h a s
b e en
ampli fi e d b y
a
b reakd o w n i n O PEC
d i s c i p li n e,
an d th i s
h a s
d eflated cos t
c ur ve s .
I n
Q 2
20
mo bili t y
r e s t r i c t i ons
a nd
t he
i m pa c t
on
s u ppl y - de m a nd
s ee s c omm odi t i e s
v ol a t il e , w hil e
C hi na ’ s
r ec ov e r y
s uppor t s
i ron or e , but w e i ghs
on c oa l
a nd al u mi n a.
M arke t
W ei gh t
w i th
a
p referen ce
fo r go l d an d h i gh qu al ity
d i v ers i fi e d mi n ers . K ey Th em es :
C O V I D - 19 ,
O P E C
b r e a k d o w n
and
C h i na
S t i mu l us
Q2
20
i s
se e n
a s
a
c h a ll e ng i ng
pe r i od
t o
ca ll
w ha t
m ay
or
m ay
not
happe n,
w i t h mob ility
res tri c ti on s
an d Ch i n a’ s
retu rn to
w ork s een
as
key
d ri v ers . M ob ility
res tri c ti on s are
li kel y
to
do mi n ate
c ommod ity
p erforman ce
th e
mo s t,
bu t
i t
w ill
d epen d on w h eth er s up pl y
or
de m a nd
i s
mo s t
i mp ac ted .
W e
rec o mmen d
i n v es to rs
und ers tan d
th e g eo g ra ph i c
c en tres
o f
s upp l y
&
d eman d
w h i c h
are
s u mmari s ed
on
p ag e
33.
Certai n c oun tri es
dom i n ate
w i th
I ndon es i a
40 %
o f
th ermal
c o al
s upp l y , So u th
Afri ca
73 %
an d 38%
of
pl a t i num/m a ngane s e
s upp l y , w hil e
C h i na
i s
7 3%
of
s ea bor ne
i ron or e
de m a nd. O u r
t o p
p ick s:
A u ,
P G MS
and
i r o n
o r e
w i t h
ba se
m e t a l s
l e a st a tt r a ct i v e
W e
h ave
l o w ered
mo s t
c ommod ity
p ri c es
to d ay
to
refl ec t
an
ex p ec ted
drop
i n
Q 2 d eman d.
At
th i s
s tag e
w e
ex p ec t
on l y
a
on e
qu arter
i mp ac t
fro m
COV I D -19
a nd
a rec o v ery
th rough H2
20 f u el l e d b y
fi s c al
an d mon etary
s ti mu l u s . O ur 2020 av erag es
fo r b as e
metal s
d ec li n e
b y
10 +%
w h il e
bu l k p ri c i ng s ees
on l y
mi nor ad j u s tmen t s . P r e ci o us
& bu l k s
p r e f e rr e d
t o
ba se
m e t a l s
O ur p referred
go l d n ames
are
Po l y metal , G o l d F i el d s , B arri c k a nd Sarac en , al l
B u y
rated . BHP
i s
p referre d o v er
R i o Ti n t o as
o il
at
c u rren t
l ev el s
s ees
mu c h o f
th e
s upp l y
c u rv e g enerati ng n e g ati ve
fee
c as h fl o w , w h i c h s hou l d
d ri ve
c l o s ur es
an d a
p ri ce
res pon s e. F M G
c on ti nu es
to
b en efi t
fro m
s tro ng
ma r gi ns
w hi c h
s ee
i t
of f e r
a
doubl e
digi t
F C F y i el d, w h il e
b as e
metal
s to cks
are
ex p ec ted
to
und erp erf orm i n Q 2 20.
F i g u r e
1 :
U B S
co mm o d i t y
p r ice
f o r eca st s
–
summa r y
o f
ch an g e s
C omm od i t y
2020E
2021E
2022E
2023E
2024E
L T
re al
C opper
( U S¢ / l b)
220(280) 300(n c )
320(n c )
330(n c )
330(329) 295(n c )
A l u m .
(US ¢ /l b )
73(82) 85(91) 90(98) 95(100) 100(100) 90(n c )
N i c kel
( U S$ / l b)
5.00(6.75) 7.00(8.00) 8.00(n c )
7.25(7.50) 7.00(6.68) 6.00(n c )
Z inc
( US ¢ / l b)
88(100) 95(n c )
100(n c )
105(n c )
108(109) 98(n c )
G ol d
(US $ /o z )
1650(1600) 1650(n c )
1650(n c )
1600(n c )
1500(1448) 1300(n c )
B r ent
O il
( U S$ / bbl )
41(60) 48(67) 55(70) 58(70) 60(70) 60(60) IO
(fi n e s ;
US $ /t
cfr )
86(88) 75(n c )
65(n c )
62(n c )
61(n c )
55(n c )
H CC
( US $ /t
fob )
145(143) 145(n c )
145(n c )
150(n c )
150(n c )
135(n c )
Ther m a l
( US $ / t
f o b)
65(68) 70(n c )
75(n c )
75(n c )
78(78) 70(n c )
A UD
(US ¢ )
62(68) 70(69) 71(72) 73(74) 74(75) 75(n c ))
S our ce :
U B S
R e s ea r c h; n c =no c h a ng e ; i ron or e
pr i ce s
62 %
F e
e q v
G l yn
Law c o ck
A na l ys t gl yn.l a w cock @ ub s .com
+ 61-2-9324
3675
D im A r iy as in g h e
A na l ys t dim .a ri ya s inghe @ ubs .com
+ 61-2-9324
2903
D an i el
Mo r g an
A na l ys t da ni e l.mor ga n@ ubs .com
+ 61-2-9324
3844
J o n i
Teves S trategi s t joni .t eve s@ ubs .co m
+ 65
6495
6851
J am es
K an
A na l ys t j a m e s .k a n@ ubs .com
+ 852-2971
6334
Myl es
A ll so p
A na l ys t m yl e s .a ll s op@ ubs .com
+ 44-20-7568
1693
D an i el
Majo r
A na l ys t da ni e l.m a jor @ ubs .com
+ 44-20-7568
3472
A nd r eas B o kke nh e u ser
A na l ys t a ndr ea s .bokk e nh euse r @ ubs .com
+1 -212-713
9516
Sh il an
Mo d i
A na l ys t s hil a n.modi @ ubs .com
+ 27-11-322
7302
C l eve
R u ecker t
A na l ys t cl eve .r ueck e r t @ u bs .com
+1 -212-713
4913
Hu go
Br av e r y
A na l ys t hugo.br ave r y @ ub s .com
+ 44-20-7568
7202
G eo r g i na
Fr ase r Assoc i a t e
An a l y st ge orgi na .f r a s e r @ ubs .com
+ 61-2-9324
2410
www .u b s.co m / i nvestm ent r esea r ch
Th i s
rep o rt
h as
b een
p rep are d b y
UB S
Sec u ri ti es
Au s trali a
L td .
A N A L YS T
C E R T I F IC A T I O N
A N D
R E Q UI R ED
DI SC L O SUR ES BEGI N O N
P AGE
68 .
UB S
do e s
an d s eeks
to
do bu s i n es s
w i t h c omp an i es
c o v ered
i n i ts
re s earc h r ep o rts . As
a
res u l t,
i n v es t o rs
s hou l d b e aw are
th at
th e
fi rm may
h ave
a
c on fl i c t
o f
i n teres t
th at
c ou l d affec t
th e
ob j ec ti v ity
o f
t h i s
rep o rt.
I n ve s to rs
s hou l d c on s i d er
th i s rep o rt
as
on l y
a
s i ng l e
fac to r i n maki ng th ei r i n v es tmen t
d ec i s i on. Bas i c
M at er i a l s
G l o bal
Equit ies
U BS
Glo b al I/ O ® :
M in er ’s
Pr ice
R ev iew
U BS
R es ear c h
U BS
R es earc h THESI S
M AP
M O ST
F AV O R ED
L EAST
F AV O R E D
G old,
P G M s ,
Ir on
Or e
Cop pe r ,
N ic k e l,
Z inc
PI VO TAL
Q UESTI O NS
Q:
W ha t
c o mm o d i t i e s
d o
w e
p r e f e r
g i v e n
cu rr e n t
ma r k e t
co nd i t i o n s?
Prec i ou s
metal s
are
p referred .
G o l d
p ri c es
s hou l d
c on ti nu e
h i gh er
as
real
r ates
fall
an d
un c ertai n ty p e r sist s;
p a lla d i um
f und a m e n t a ls
a r e
lik e ly
t o
r e m a in
t ig h t
a s
su pp ly
d isr up t i on s
o ff se t
lo sse s
in d eman d. F o ll o w i ng p rec i ou s
metal s , w e
s ee
mo re
s uppo rt
fo r i ron o re
as
a
res u l t
o f
i ts
ex po s u re
to Ch i n a ,
w h i c h
l oo ks
to
b e
o v er
th e
w o rs t
o f
i ts
o w n
ou tb reak
&
l oo ki ng
to
s uppo rt
th e
ec ono my th rough
i n fras t ru c tu re.
I n
c on tras t,
b a s e
me tal s
w ill
li kel y
b e
h ard e s t
h i t
fro m
th e
do w n tu rn
i n ec ono mi c
d ema nd as
a
res u l t
o f
Co v i d-19.
Q:
W h i ch
c o un t r y
r e st r i ct i o ns
p r e se n t
t h e
m o st r i sk t o
g l o ba l
co mm o d i t y
S - D
ba l an ce s?
W e
h ave
al read y
s een
a
numb er
o f
c oun t ri es
( i n c l ud i ng
S.
Afri c a,
I nd i a ,
Arg e n ti n a ,
Pe ru )
i mpo s e res tri c ti on s
on
mob ility
i n
ord er
to
c on tai n
th e
c oron av i ru s
p an d emi c
&
al l ev i ate
s tres s
on
th ei r h eal th c are
s y s tems .
I n
s o me
c ases ,
th es e
re s tri c ti on s
h ave
i mp ac ted
c ommod ity
fl o w
&
c an
h ave s i g ni f i ca nt
i mp ac t s
on
c omm odi t y
s upp l y - de m a nd
ba l a nc e s .
C hi na
pos e s
t he
bi gge s t
r i s k
t o
t he d eman d- s i de
of
m ul t ipl e
c omm odi t i e s , b ut
r i s k s
ap p ear
to
b e
ab ati ng as
th e
c oun try
l oo ks
t o b e
o v er th e
w o rs t
o f
th ei r
ou t b reak.
Su pp l y
ri s ks
are
g reates t
w h ere
th e
c en trali s ed
produ c ti on
o f
on e c ommod ity
b ec o mes
do mi n an t . K ey
c oun tri es
are
So u th
Afri ca
fo r Pl ati num ( 73 %) , Au s trali a
fo r I ron Ore
( 58 %) , Ch i n a
fo r Al u mi n i um ( 57 %) , I ndon es i a
fo r Th er mal
Co al
( 40 % )
an d R u ss i a
fo r Pal l ad i um ( 40% ) .
Q:
H o w
d o e s
t h e
st i mu l us
r e sp o n se
o f
g o v e r nm e n t s
co mpa r e
n o w
v s.
du r i n g
t h e
2008 - 0 9? O ur
ec ono mi s t s
es ti mate
gl o ba l
f i s ca l
i m pul s e
i s
no w
a t
2.58 %
o f
gl oba l
GD P .
Th i s
c omp ares
to 1.66 %
du ri ng th e
G F C.
Ho w ev er,
no t
al l
s ti mu l u s
i s
c reated
eq u al
w i th
regard
to
c ommod ity
d eman d an d
w e
no te
Ch i n a" s
rel u c tan ce
t o
s ti mu l a te
s o me
s ec to rs
mo re
w ei gh ted
to w ard s
c ommod ity c on s ump ti on ( i . e.
th e
prop erty
s ec to r) .
UB S
V I EW
N eu t r al
s t an c e
m ai n t ai n ed :
W e
mai n tai n
our
s ec to r
w ei gh ti ng
at
Neu t ral
bu t
w i th
pr eferen ce
to d iv e r sifie d s
& go ld
m i n e r s.
EV I DENCE
F l ash
P MI s
si g na l
t h e
pa i n
ah e ad :
F l as h
M an u fac tu ri ng
PM I " s
fo r
t h e
U S
( 49 ) , EU
( 44.8 )
&
Jap a n ( 44.7 )
s i gn a l
th e
p ai n ah ead
i n M arc h & are
al l
marked
d eteri o rati on s
fro m th e
s tart o f
th e
ye ar.
W HAT" s
PR I CED
I N?
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