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C ONTENT S
T ABLES
AND
FIGURES
iv
A CKNO WLEDGMENT S
v
ABBREVIA TIONS
vi
ABS TR A CT
vii
I. INTR ODUCTION
1
II. BA CK GR OUND
2 III. METHODOL OG Y
3
A .
Ca v ea ts
and
Assumptions
4 IV. RESUL T S
5
V. DISCUSSION
11
VI. RE C O MMEND A TIONS
14
A. S tr engthening
Capacity
t o
P r ev en t
and
Con tr ol
Animal
D iseases
14
B. I n vestmen t
Sc enarios
f or
I n t erven tions
16
VII. C ONCL USIONS
17
APPENDIXES
1. Methods
Emplo y ed
t o
Estima t e
D ir ect
Costs
o f
A fric an
S wine
F ev er
18
2. P ar amet er s
U sed
in
the
Liv est ock
D ev elopmen t
Planning
S y st em,
22
V ersion
2
H er d
Dynamic
Model
3. S upplemen t ary
D a t a:
I nitial
Costs
o f
D isease
in
the
P eople ’ s
2 4 R epublic
o f
China
and
the
Gr ea t er
Mek ong
S ubr e gion
4. Critic al
T r ansboundary
Animal
D iseases ,
F oodborne
P a tho gens ,
2 6
and
N on-F oodborne
Z oonoses
REFERENCES
27
T ABLES
T ABLES
AND
FIGURES
1
Estima t ed
D ir ect
Costs
o f
A fric an
S wine
F ev er
on
P r oduction
b y
Coun try
6
A1. 1
Pig
P ric e
D a t a
U sed
in
Cr os s- c oun try Analy ses
19
A1.2
Pig
P ric e
D a t a
U sed
in
within the
P eople"s
R epublic
o f
China
Analy ses
20
A2
P r oduction
P ar amet er s
U sed
in
the
F ood
and
Agricultur e
22
O r ganiza tion
o f
the
U nit ed
N a tions
Liv est ock
D ev elopmen t
Planning S y st em,
V ersion
2
H er d
Dynamic
Model
A3
I nitial
Cost
o f
D isease
P ar amet er s
and
R esults
2 4 A4
Examples
o f
T err estrial
Animal
P r oduction
As socia t ed
H azards
2 6
in
the
P eople ’ s
R epublic
o f
China
and
the
Gr ea t er
Mek ong
S ubr e gion
FIGURES
1 H er d
N umber s
and
Appr o xima t e
D emo gr aphics
b y
4 P r oduction
S y stem
and
P r oduction
S t age
P rior
t o
the
A fric an
S wine F ev er
Epidemic
b y
P r oduction
S y stem
and
P r oduction
S t age
2 Estima t ed
D ir ect
Costs
t o
P r oduction
b y
Coun try
6
3 Estima t ed
I nitial
Costs
o f
D ea ths ,
Morbidity ,
and
Culls
o f
the
7
A fric an
S wine
F ev er
O utbr eak
b y
P r oduction
S y stem
and
Coun try 4 Estima t ed
I nitial
Costs
o f
D ea ths ,
Morbidity ,
and
Culls
o f
the
8 A fric an
S wine
F ev er
O utbr eak
in
the
P eople ’ s
R epublic
o f
China
b y
R e gion and
P r oduction
S t age
5 Estima t ed
I nitial
Costs
o f
D ea ths ,
Morbidity and
Culls
o f
the
9
A fric an
S wine
F ev er
O utbr eak
in
the
P eople ’ s
R epublic
o f
China
b y
P r o vinc e and
P r oduction
S t age
6 Estima t ed
D ir ect
Costs
o f
H ypothetic al
A fric an
S wine
F ev er
Con tr ol
10
Sc enarios
Estima t ed
D ir ect
Costs
t o
P r oduction
if
the
D isease
had
been Con tr olled
in
Liaoning
P r o vinc e
A CKNO WLEDGMENT S
W e
w ould
lik e
t o
ackno wledge
the
f ollo wing
per sons
who
pr o vided
v aluable
insigh ts
and
inputs
t o
the r epor t:
D ominic
Smith,
senior
r esear ch
f ellow ,
School
o f
Agricultur e
and
F ood
Scienc es ,
U niv er sity o f
Queensland;
D amian
T ago
P achec o ,
r e gional
animal
health
ec onomist,
Emergency
Cen t er
f or T r ansboundary
Animal
D iseases ,
F ood
and
Agricultur e
O r ganiza tion
o f
the
U nit ed
N a tions ,
R e gional Offic e
f or
Asia
and
the
P acific;
J ona than
T uk e,
senior
lectur er
in
st a tistics ,
School
o f
Ma thema tic al Scienc es ,
U niv er sity
o f
Adelaide;
J ohn
W ea v er ,
v et erinarian
and
v et erinary
epidemiolo gist;
T akashi Y amano ,
senior
ec onomist,
Asian
D ev elopmen t
Bank;
and
Shingo
Kimur a,
senior
na tur al
r esour c es and
agricultur e
specialist,
Asian
D ev elopmen t
Bank.
W e
also
wish
t o
thank
J ames
L ynch,
director gener al
o f
the
East
Asia
D epar tmen t
o f
the
Asian
D ev elopmen t
Bank,
M.
T er esa
Kho ,
deputy
director gener al
o f
the
East
Asia
D epar tmen t
o f
the
Asian
D ev elopmen t
Bank,
and
Sanga y
P enjor ,
director
o f
the U rban
and
Social
Sect or s
D ivision,
East
Asia
D epar tmen t
o f
the
Asian
D ev elopmen t
Bank
f or
their
kind enc our agemen t
and
suppor t
f or
this
public a tion.
ABBREVIA TIONS
ADB
Asian
D ev elopmen t
Bank
ASF
A fric an
s wine
f ev er
F AO
F ood
and
Agricultur e
O r ganiza tion
o f
the
U nit ed
N a tions F AO S T A T
F ood
and
Agricultur e
O r ganiza tion
Corpor a t e
S t a tistic al
D a t abase F MD
f oot- and-mouth
disease
GHG
gr eenhouse
gas
GMS
Gr ea t er
Mek ong
S ubr e gion
Lao
PDR
Lao
P eople ’ s
D emocr a tic
R epublic PR C
P eople ’ s
R epublic
o f
China
OIE
Offic e
I nt ernational
de s
Epiz oo tie s
( W orld
O r ganisa tion
f or
Animal
H ealth) SPS
sanit ary
and
ph yt osanit ary
st andar ds
TAD
tr ansboundary
animal
disease
USD A
U nit ed
S t a t es
D epar tmen t
o f
Agricultur e WHO
W orld
H ealth
O r ganiza tion
ABS TR A CT
The
in tr oduction
and
spr ead
o f
A fric an
s wine
f ev er
( ASF )
in
the
P eople ’ s
R epublic
o f
China
(PR C )
and thr ough
man y
ar eas
in
Southeast
Asia
under sc or es
the
impor t anc e
o f
animal
diseases
in
ec onomics and
tr ade
in
the
r e gion.
The
PR C
r aises
appr o xima t ely
50%
o f
the
w orld ’ s
pigs;
an
industry
w or th
o v er
$128
billion.
The
industry
is
an
es sen tial
c omponen t
o f
the
na tional
ec onom y
and
sour c e
o f
liv elihood and
f ood
security
f or
much
o f
the
popula tion.
Curr en t
estima t es
indic a t e
tha t
a t
least
25%
and
perhaps as
much
as
55%
o f
the
PR C ’ s
na tional
her d
has
been
lost
t o
the
disease
and
culling
sinc e
it
w as
fir st r epor t ed.
I ts
impacts
on
liv elihoods
and
f ood
security
in
neighboring
c oun tries
are
equally
disastrous .
T o
as sist
policymak er s
in
as ses sing
the
sc ale
o f
the
impact,
this
paper
emplo y ed
a
det erministic
analy sis and
approach
t o
estima ting
the
direct
c osts
o f
the
disease.
The
r esults
indic a t e
direct
c osts
o f
ASF
on
the PR C
and
neighboring
c oun tries
o f
$55
billion–$130
billion.
Of
this ,
$28
billion–$46
billion
w er e
a t tribut ed t o
initial
los ses
t o
disease
and
culling,
$4
billion–$7
billion
t o
the
c ost
o f
r eplac emen t
br eeding
animals , and
$23
billion–$77
billion
in
r ev enue
f or gone.
H o w ev er ,
if
the
disease
w as
suc c es sfully
c on t ained
in Liaoning
P r o vinc e,
initial
los ses
w ould
ha v e
been
$3.6
billion–$5.2
billion.
The
bur den
o f
the
disease
is f alling
dispr opor tiona t ely
on
smallholders—f or
whom
pig
r aising
is
o ft en
a
critic al
liv elihood
mechanism and
saf ety
net—in
absolut e
t erms
and
on
a
per
pig
basis ,
ther eb y
thr ea t ening
incr eases
in
po v er ty , vulner ability ,
and
f ood
insecurity .
Exac erba ting
this ,
the
supply
side
shock
is
driving
up
pork,
other
f ood, and
gener al
pric es
f or
consumer s .
The
eff ects
o f
the
disease
on
human
health
security ,
tr ade,
the
clima t e, clima t e
change
r esilienc e,
and
loc al
en vir onmen ts
are
also
subst an tial.
The
ASF
epidemic
highlights
the
massive
ec onomic
and
human
c osts
as socia t ed
with it
and
the
pot en tial c osts
o f
other
animal
disease
outbr eaks
in
the
futur e.
Ther e
is
an
ur gen t
need
f or
r e gional
in vestmen t
in animal
health
s y stem
infr astructur e,
capacity
building,
and
policy
t o
r educ e
the
likelihood
and
c osts
o f curr en t
and
futur e
animal
diseases
and
z oonoses .
F ur ther
r esear ch
is
needed
t o
bet t er
inf orm
na tional and
r e gional
decision
making,
and
direct
in vestments
in
animal
and
z oonotic
disease
pr ev en tion, monit oring,
and
c on tr ol.
I. INTR ODUCTION
1. The
ec onomic
bur den
o f
animal
diseases
is
r ec o gniz ed
t o
be
subst an tial.
D isease
char act eristics , the
susc eptibility o f
animal
popula tions
and
en vir onmen t al
f act or s
det ermine
r a t es
o f
inf ection,
mor t ality , and
impacts
on
pr oductivity
in
animals
and
ma y
dir ectly ,
in
the
c ase
o f
z oonoses , 1
aff ect
human
health (R ush t on
et al.
2018).
Mean while,
los s
o f
liv est ock,
tr ade,
decr eased
mark et v alue,
f ood
insecurity , en vir onmen t al
impacts ,
and
eff or ts
t o
r espond
t o
animal
diseases
all
come
a t
consider able
c osts
t o liv elihoods
and
both public
and
priv a t e
sect or
in t er ests
(Barr a tt
et al.
2019).
Endemic
and
emer ging tr ansboundary
animal
diseases
( TAD s)
thr ea t en
liv est ock
pr oduc er s
in
Asia,
hampering
liv est ock pr oductivity ,
c a using
mark et disruptions ,
and
inhibiting
f ormal
tr ade
pr oduction
animals
and
pr oducts . Knigh t- J ones
and
R ush t on
(2013)
estima t ed
the
global
c osts
o f
f oot- and-mouth
disease
(F MD )
alone t o
be
$21
billion.
2. An
estima t ed
7 5%
o f
emer ging
inf ectious
diseases
are
z oonotic
and
some
61%
o f
human pa tho gens
are
z oonoses
( J ones
et al.
2008
and
W orld
H ealth
O r ganiza tion
[ WHO ]
2006),
leading
t o high
c osts
in
healthc ar e,
lost
labor ,
lost
t ourism,
and
r educ ed
expor t
mark et ac c es s .
The
W orld
Bank (2017)
estima t ed
tha t
East
Asia
and
the
P acific
ha v e
the
highest
vulner ability
t o
ec onomic
los ses fr om
pandemics ,
estima ting
annual
los ses
o f
$200
billion,
which
equa t es
t o
0.9%
o f
the
r e gion ’ s
gros s domestic
pr oduct.
The
global
direct
c osts
o f
z oonotic
diseases ,
specific ally ,
has
been
estima t ed
a t
mor e than
$20
billion
and
indirect
los ses
a t
o v er
$200
billion
t o
aff ect ed
ec onomies
(Barr a tt
et al.
2019 an...
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