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Phase One Trade Agreement USCBC Member Survey February 2020
Introduction On January 15, 2020, President Donald Trump and Vice Premier Liu He signed a Phase One trade agreement between the United States and China, cooling a near two-year tit-for-tat tariff escalation. The agreement locks both countries into commitments on several issues of importance to USCBC and our members.
Notably, the deal formalizes a series of commitments on intellectual property protection, financial services openings, and structural changes that will expand trade flows between China and the United States. Implementation of these commitments hinges on a dispute resolution system, the first of its kind between the United States and China, that establishes two new bilateral dialogues and facilitates remedial talks if any issues arise.
The agreement is a positive step that stabilizes the bilateral relationship, but some critics have called the agreement overly ambitious and vague. To better understand how the US business community views the Phase One deal and its efficacy, we asked our members a series of related questions shortly after the deal was released.
Overall perspectives on the deal
Positive
33 USCBC members overwhelmingly (78 percent) view the Phase One agreement as positive for the commercial environment and bilateral relations. The majority of respondents with a positive view believe the agreement stabilizes the bilateral relationship and prevents imminent imposition of new tariffs, with 6 percent responding that the agreement adds more certainty to the business environment and improves trust with suppliers. Somewhat positive Neutral Somewhat negative Negative
45 Ten percent of respondents have a neutral view of the agreement. They believe the agreement may benefit their operations, but worry that it will not be faithfully or fully implemented in China. Other neutral responses note that many of the items outlined in Phase One were already announced or are currently being implemented, and indicate a disappointment that tariffs on Lists 1-3 remain.
3
9
10 Another 12 percent of respondents hold a negative or somewhat negative view of the agreement. These respondents are primarily concerned that Phase One does not create a long-term solution for US-China tensions and that tariffs remain in place.
Outlook
is
primarily
positive
because:
64
It marks a cessation of further tariff escalation and puts the relationship on a more sustainable trajectory It resolves or addresses a specific challenge my company experiences in the market Other (write) It creates a more certain business environment and improves the trust of my customers in the reliability of our product
Outlook
is
primarily
negative
because:
82
No long-term solution for US-China tensions, tariffs remain in place. It does not address the issues my company faces in the China market 18 17 13 6
Section 301 Actions The initial Section 301 report in the spring of 2018 and subsequent tariff actions have resulted in tariffs on over $350 billion of imports from China. Less than one fifth of respondents believe that the benefits of the Section 301 actions outweigh the costs. While more respondents (30 percent) believe that the costs of the Section 301 actions outweigh the benefits, more than half said it is too early to tell. Responses to this question underscore that, while members are relieved at the temporary reprieve provided by the Phase One agreement, there is still substantial work to be done in “phase two” negotiations.
Do
the
benefits
outweigh
the
costs
of
the
US Administration"s
Section
301
actions?
Yes No Too early to tell
Direct impacts on companies Around 60 percent of respondents indicate they will be directly impacted by the commitments listed in the text of Phase One. In order of importance, expanding trade, IP rights protection, and technology transfer commitments were listed as having the most acute impact on respondents. Some companies also reported that the reduction in List 4a tariffs and expansion of business opportunities as key impacts on their operations.
Which
component
of
the
Phase
One
agreement text
is
most
relevant
to
your
company?
Expanding trade/purchases
30
IP rights protection
27
Technology transfer
15
Financial services
12
Other
10
Agriculture regulatory/non-tariff barriers
5
51 30
19
Dispute resolution mechanism Responses to questions about the likelihood of companies to utilize the agreement’s dispute resolution mechanism are a mixed bag. Only around 20 percent of respondents said their company would use the platform should a non-compliance issue arise. Of those that would use it, the majority indicated they would only do so through a trade association or anonymously with the US government. Thirty percent of respondents are unlikely or very unlikely to use the mechanism at all, and nearly half are simply unsure.
How
likely
is
your
company
to
utilize
the
Phase
One
agreement’s dispute
resolution
mechanism
if
a
non-compliance
issue
arises?
Very Likely Likely Unsure Unlikely Very Unlikely
Some areas of the agreement will require company-specific information to resolve a non- compliance issue, such as conflicts of interest in an expert panel review or a delayed licensing timeline. As a result, it is unclear how these issues could be resolved without attributable company information. However, companies need not participate in all aspects of the dispute resolution mechanism for it to be effective. For commitments with publicly announced implementation timelines, such as publishing the IP action plan or issuing a regulation related to the agreement with a 45-day comment period in advance, the United States Trade Representative will have sufficient information without company participation to determine faithful implementation.
If
you
believe
your
company
will
utilize
the
Phase
One
agreement’s dispute
resolution
mechanism,
how
would
you
envision
doing
so?
Will primarily work through trade associations as means for utilizing the trade dispute mechanism Will work anonymously with the US government N/A, prefer to address issues privately with the Chinese government Will use the dispute resolution mechanism as an option of last resort
36
Other
Will plan to be an active user of the dispute resolution mechanism
Note: all percentages are rounded to the nearest whole and as a result, some charts may not add up to 100
13
17
48
11
11
17 13
11
6 2
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