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By
Seth
G.
J ones,
C ATRINA
Doxsee,
N ICHOLAS
H ARRINGTON ,
Gr ACE
H WANG ,
&
J AMES
S uber
THE
IS SUE
OC T OBER
2020 White
supr EMACISTS
AND
other
like-minded
extr emists
conducted
two-thir ds
of
the
terr orist
plots
AND
ATTACKS
in the
United
S TATES
in 2020,
ACCOR ding
to
new
CSIS
DATA .
A NAR chists,
ANTI - F ASCISTS ,
AND
other
like-minded
extr emists
or chestr ATED
20
per cent
of
the
plots AND
ATTACKS ,
though
the
number
of
incidents
gr ew
fr om
pr evious
YEARS
AS
these
extr emists
TAR geted
LAW
enf or cement ,
MILITAR y ,
AND
gover nment
f ACILITIES
AND
personnel .
Despite
these
findings,
however ,
the
number
of
f ATALITIES
fr om
domestic
terr orism
is
r ELATIVELY
low
COMPAR ed
to
pr evious
YEARS .
INTRODUC TION
Ther e has
been gr owing concern
about the
thr eat of domestic
terr orism,
with
extr emists
motivated by
political, r acial,
ethnic,
ec onomic,
health,
and
other grievances. In
October 2020, the
FBI
arr ested Adam
F ox ,
Barr y
Croft , and
sever al other acc omplices
in
a
plot to
kidnap
and potentially
execute
Michigan
Governor Gr etchen
Whitmer . Members of
this
network ,
which
had
ties
to
militias
in Michigan
and
other states,
r ef err ed to
Governor Whitmer as
a
“tyr ant ”
and
claimed
that
she
had
“unc ontrolled
power
right now . ” 1
They
also discussed kidnapping
Vir ginia Governor R alph
N ortham,
in
part
because of
his
lock down or ders
to
slow
the
spr ead
of
Covid-19. 2
Some
U.S.
government
agencies have outlined
the
thr eat fr om
domestic
extr emists,
though
most
have not
pr ovided r ecent
data
about terr orist incidents.
In
its
H OMELAND
Thr EAT
Assessment
r eleased in
October 2020, the
U.S.
Department of
Homeland
Security concluded
that
“ r acially and ethnically
motivated violent
extremists—specifically
white supr emacist
extr emists
( WSEs)—will
r emain
the
most persistent
AND
LETHAL
thr EAT
in
the
Homeland . ” 3
The
r eport
also as ses sed that
anarchists and
other individuals
inspired by
anti-government
and
anti-authority
ideologies posed a thr eat .
But
it
did not
pr ovide 2020
data.
The
F eder al Bur eau of
In vestigation similarly ar gued that
the
“top thr eat we face
fr om
domestic
violent
extr emists”
is fr om
r acially-
and ethnically-motivated
violent
extr emists,
including
white supr emacists. 4
N evertheles s,
FBI
officials have not
publicly r eleased their
data,
making
it
difficult
f or
U.S.
civilians
to judge the
degr ee and
type of
thr eat .
T o help
fill
this
gap, this
analysis pr ovides new data
on
the
domestic
terr orist thr eat in
the
United
States.
It
asks sever al questions.
What
ar e the
main
tr ends
in
domestic terr orism in
2020
in
such
ar eas
as
terr orist motivaton, tactics,
and
tar gets? How
did 2020
c ompar e to
pr evious years?
T o answer
these
questions,
the
authors c onstructed a
data
set of
terr orist attacks and
plots in
the
United
States fr om
January
1,
2020
to
A ugust 31, 2020, which
upda a br oader
CSIS
data
set of
terr orist incidents
in
the
United States fr om
1994
to
2020. 5
Based
on
the
data,
this
analysis has
sever al findings,
which ar e discussed at gr eater
length
later
in
this
as ses sment .
The
W ar
Comes
Home
The
Evolution
of
Domestic
T err orism
in the
United
S TATES
BRIEFS
First ,
white
supr emacists and
other lik e-minded
extr emists conducted
67
percent of
terr orist plots and
attacks in
the United
States in
2020. They
used vehicles,
explosives, and
fir earms
as
their
pr edominant
weapons and
tar geted demonstr ators
and
other individuals
because of
their
r acial, ethnic,
r eligious,
or
political
mak eup—such
as
African Americans,
immigr ants,
Muslims,
and
Jews. Sec ond,
ther e was
a
rise
in
the
number of
anarchist ,
anti-fascist ,
and
other lik e-minded
attacks and
plots in
2020
c ompar ed to
pr evious years,
which
c omprised 20
percent of
terr orist incidents
(an incr ease
fr om
8
percent in
2019). These
types of
extr emists used explosives and
incendiaries
in
the
majority of
attacks, f ollowed by
fir earms. They
also tar geted police,
militar y ,
government
personnel and
facilities.
Thir d,
far-left and
far-right violence
was
deeply intertwined—cr ea
a
clas sic
“ security dilemma . ” 6
Since
it
is difficult
to
distinguish between offensive
and
defensive
weapons, armed individuals
fr om
various
sides r eacted to
each
other during pr otests and
riots,
and
each
side’ s
eff orts
to
pr otect
itself
and acquir e weapons generally thr eatened others.
Despite
these
findings,
this
violence
needs to
be understood in
historical context .
The
number of
fatalities fr om
terr orist attacks in
the
U.S.
homeland
is still
r elatively small
c ompar ed to
some
periods
in
U.S.
histor y ,
making
it
important
not
to
overstate the
thr eat . 7
Roughly half
of the
years
since
1994
had
a
gr EATER
number of
fatalities fr om
terr orism than
2020—at
least between January
1
and
A ugust 31, 2020. Ther e wer e also no
mas s- casualty terr orist attacks,
a
stark
c ontrast fr om
such
incidents
as
the
April 1995
Oklahoma
City
bombing ,
which
killed
168
people;
the
September 2001
attacks,
which
killed
nearly 3,000 people; and
the
June
2016
Orlando
attack ,
which
killed
49
people.
Still,
violence
levels in
the
United
States c ould rise
over
the
next
year
depending
on
political
polarization, the
persistence of
the
Covid-19
pandemic
(and r eactions
to
polic y
decisions
to
mitigate
its
spr ead), worsening ec onomic
c onditions,
gr owing concerns
about immigr ation (whether r eal or
perceived), r acial injustice,
or
other factors.
It
is also pos sible that
the
or ganizational structure of
extr emism
c ould evolve fr om
today ’ s
decentr alized landscape to
include
more hierarchically structured gr oups.
The
r est of
this
r eport
is divided into
thr ee sections.
The first defines
terr orism and
diff er entiates
this
r eport ’ s f ocus on
terr orism fr om
other phenomena,
such
as
hate
crimes and
riots.
The
sec ond
section
outlines
and analyzes the
2020
terr orism data.
The
thir d
explor es f uture developments,
including
the
potential
f or
violence
after the
2020
pr esidential
election.
DEFINING
TERRORISM
This
r eport
f ocuses on
terrorism—not
other is sues,
such as
hate
crimes,
pr otests,
riots,
or
br oader
civil
unrest .
Terr orism is the
deliber ate use—or
thr eat—of
violence
by non-state
actors
in
or der
to
achieve
political
goals
and
cr eate a
br oad
psy chological
impact . 8
V iolence
and
the
thr eat of
violence
ar e important
components
of
terr orism.
This analysis divides terr orism into
sever al categories:
r eligious, ethnonationalist ,
violent
far-right ,
violent
far-left ,
and
other (which
includes
terr orism that
does not
fit
neatly
into
an y
of
the
other categories). 9
T erms such
as
far-right and
far-left terr orism do not
c orr espond to
mainstr eam political
parties in
the
United
States,
such
as
the
Republican and
Democr atic parties, which
eschew terr orism.
N or
do they
c orr espond to
vast majority of
political
c onservatives and
liberals
in the
United
States,
who do not
support
terr orism.
Instead, terr orism is orchestrated by
a
small
set of
violent
extr emists. A s
terr orism scholar Walter
L aqueur
ar gues,
“terr orist movements
ar e usually small; some
ver y
small
indeed,
and while
historians
and
sociologists can
sometimes
acc ount
f or
mas s
movements,
the
movements
of
small
particles in politics
as
in
ph ysics often
def y
an y
explanation . ” 10
R eligious
terr orism
includes
violence
in
support
of
a
faith- based
belief
system,
such
as
Islam,
Judaism,
Christianity ,
or Hinduism.
The
primary
thr eat fr om
r eligious terr orists in
United
States comes
fr om
Salafi-jihadists
inspired by the
Islamic
State and
al-Qaeda. 11
E THNONATIONALIST
terr orism r ef ers
to
violence
in
support
of
ethnic
or
nationalist
goals, which
often
include
struggles
of
self-determination
and separ atism
along ethnic
or
nationalist
lines.
Due
to
the r elatively low
levels of
ethnonationalist
terr orism in
the United
States—no
such
incidents
occurr ed in
2020—this brief does not
addr es s
ethnonationalist
terr orism. 12
F AR - right
terr orism
r ef ers
to
the
use or
thr eat of
violence
by subnational
or
non-state
entities
whose goals
may include r acial or
ethnic
supr emac y;
opposition
to
government authority; anger
at women,
including
fr om
the
in voluntar y celibate (or
“incel”)
movement ;
belief
in
certain c onspirac y theories,
such
as
QAnon;
and
outr age
against certain policies,
such
as
abion. 13
Some
extr emists
on
the
violent far-right have supported “ acceler ationism, ”
which
includes taking
actions
to
pr omote
social upheaval and
incite
a
civil
war . 14
F AR - LEFT
terr orism
in volves the
use or
thr eat of violence
by
subnational
or
non-state
entities
that
oppose capitalism,
imperialism,
and
colonialism;
advocate black nationalism;
pursue en vir onmental
or
animal
rights issues; espouse pr o- c ommunist
or
pr o-socialist
beliefs; or support
a
decentr alized
social and
political
system such
as
anarchism. 15
Other
in volves the
use or
thr eat of
violence
by subnational
or
non-state
entities
that
do not
neatly
fit
into an y
of
the
above
categories, such
as
the
anti-government Boogaloo
movement ,
whose adher ents
aim
to
start
a
civil war
(or
“ boogaloo”)
in
the
United
States. 16
In
f ocusing
on
terr orism,
this
r eport
does not
c over
thbr oader
cate...
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