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内战归来:美国国内恐怖主义演变【精选推荐】

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内战归来:美国国内恐怖主义演变【精选推荐】

 

  By

 Seth

 G.

 J ones,

 C ATRINA

 Doxsee,

 N ICHOLAS

 H ARRINGTON ,

 Gr ACE

 H WANG ,

 &

 J AMES

 S uber

 THE

 IS SUE

 OC T OBER

 2020 White

 supr EMACISTS

 AND

 other

 like-minded

 extr emists

 conducted

 two-thir ds

 of

 the

 terr orist

 plots

 AND

 ATTACKS

 in the

 United

 S TATES

 in 2020,

 ACCOR ding

 to

 new

 CSIS

 DATA .

 A NAR chists,

 ANTI - F ASCISTS ,

 AND

 other

 like-minded

 extr emists

 or chestr ATED

 20

 per cent

 of

 the

 plots AND

 ATTACKS ,

 though

 the

 number

 of

 incidents

 gr ew

 fr om

 pr evious

 YEARS

 AS

 these

 extr emists

 TAR geted

 LAW

 enf or cement ,

 MILITAR y ,

 AND

 gover nment

 f ACILITIES

 AND

 personnel .

 Despite

 these

 findings,

 however ,

 the

 number

 of

 f ATALITIES

 fr om

 domestic

 terr orism

 is

 r ELATIVELY

 low

 COMPAR ed

 to

 pr evious

 YEARS .

 INTRODUC TION

 Ther e has

 been gr owing concern

 about the

 thr eat of domestic

 terr orism,

 with

 extr emists

 motivated by

 political, r acial,

 ethnic,

 ec onomic,

 health,

 and

 other grievances. In

 October 2020, the

 FBI

 arr ested Adam

 F ox ,

 Barr y

 Croft , and

 sever al other acc omplices

 in

 a

 plot to

 kidnap

 and potentially

 execute

 Michigan

 Governor Gr etchen

 Whitmer . Members of

 this

 network ,

 which

 had

 ties

 to

 militias

 in Michigan

 and

 other states,

 r ef err ed to

 Governor Whitmer as

 a

 “tyr ant ”

 and

 claimed

 that

 she

 had

 “unc ontrolled

 power

 right now . ” 1

  They

 also discussed kidnapping

 Vir ginia Governor R alph

 N ortham,

 in

 part

 because of

 his

 lock down or ders

 to

 slow

 the

 spr ead

 of

 Covid-19. 2

 Some

 U.S.

 government

 agencies have outlined

 the

 thr eat fr om

 domestic

 extr emists,

 though

 most

 have not

 pr ovided r ecent

 data

 about terr orist incidents.

 In

 its

 H OMELAND

 Thr EAT

 Assessment

 r eleased in

 October 2020, the

 U.S.

 Department of

 Homeland

 Security concluded

 that

 “ r acially and ethnically

 motivated violent

 extremists—specifically

 white supr emacist

 extr emists

 ( WSEs)—will

 r emain

 the

 most persistent

 AND

 LETHAL

 thr EAT

 in

 the

 Homeland . ” 3

  The

 r eport

 also as ses sed that

 anarchists and

 other individuals

 inspired by

 anti-government

 and

 anti-authority

 ideologies posed a thr eat .

 But

 it

 did not

 pr ovide 2020

 data.

 The

 F eder al Bur eau of

 In vestigation similarly ar gued that

 the

 “top thr eat we face

 fr om

 domestic

 violent

 extr emists”

 is fr om

 r acially-

 and ethnically-motivated

 violent

 extr emists,

 including

 white supr emacists. 4

  N evertheles s,

 FBI

 officials have not

 publicly r eleased their

 data,

 making

 it

 difficult

 f or

 U.S.

 civilians

 to judge the

 degr ee and

 type of

 thr eat .

 T o help

 fill

 this

 gap, this

 analysis pr ovides new data

 on

 the

 domestic

 terr orist thr eat in

 the

 United

 States.

 It

 asks sever al questions.

 What

 ar e the

 main

 tr ends

 in

 domestic terr orism in

 2020

 in

 such

 ar eas

 as

 terr orist motivaton, tactics,

 and

 tar gets? How

 did 2020

 c ompar e to

 pr evious years?

 T o answer

 these

 questions,

 the

 authors c onstructed a

 data

 set of

 terr orist attacks and

 plots in

 the

 United

 States fr om

 January

 1,

 2020

 to

 A ugust 31, 2020, which

 upda a br oader

 CSIS

 data

 set of

 terr orist incidents

 in

 the

 United States fr om

 1994

 to

 2020. 5

 Based

 on

 the

 data,

 this

 analysis has

 sever al findings,

 which ar e discussed at gr eater

 length

 later

 in

 this

 as ses sment .

  The

 W ar

 Comes

 Home

 The

 Evolution

 of

 Domestic

 T err orism

 in the

 United

 S TATES

 BRIEFS

 First ,

 white

 supr emacists and

 other lik e-minded

 extr emists conducted

 67

 percent of

 terr orist plots and

 attacks in

 the United

 States in

 2020. They

 used vehicles,

 explosives, and

 fir earms

 as

 their

 pr edominant

 weapons and

 tar geted demonstr ators

 and

 other individuals

 because of

 their

 r acial, ethnic,

 r eligious,

 or

 political

 mak eup—such

 as

 African Americans,

 immigr ants,

 Muslims,

 and

 Jews. Sec ond,

 ther e was

 a

 rise

 in

 the

 number of

 anarchist ,

 anti-fascist ,

 and

 other lik e-minded

 attacks and

 plots in

 2020

 c ompar ed to

 pr evious years,

 which

 c omprised 20

 percent of

 terr orist incidents

 (an incr ease

 fr om

 8

 percent in

 2019). These

 types of

 extr emists used explosives and

 incendiaries

 in

 the

 majority of

 attacks, f ollowed by

 fir earms. They

 also tar geted police,

 militar y ,

  government

 personnel and

 facilities.

 Thir d,

 far-left and

 far-right violence

 was

 deeply intertwined—cr ea

 a

 clas sic

 “ security dilemma . ” 6

  Since

 it

 is difficult

 to

 distinguish between offensive

 and

 defensive

 weapons, armed individuals

 fr om

 various

 sides r eacted to

 each

 other during pr otests and

 riots,

 and

 each

 side’ s

 eff orts

 to

 pr otect

 itself

 and acquir e weapons generally thr eatened others.

 Despite

 these

 findings,

 this

 violence

 needs to

 be understood in

 historical context .

 The

 number of

 fatalities fr om

 terr orist attacks in

 the

 U.S.

 homeland

 is still

 r elatively small

 c ompar ed to

 some

 periods

 in

 U.S.

 histor y ,

 making

 it

 important

 not

 to

 overstate the

 thr eat . 7

  Roughly half

 of the

 years

 since

 1994

 had

 a

 gr EATER

 number of

 fatalities fr om

 terr orism than

 2020—at

 least between January

 1

 and

 A ugust 31, 2020. Ther e wer e also no

 mas s- casualty terr orist attacks,

 a

 stark

 c ontrast fr om

 such

 incidents

 as

 the

 April 1995

 Oklahoma

 City

 bombing ,

 which

 killed

 168

 people;

 the

 September 2001

 attacks,

 which

 killed

 nearly 3,000 people; and

 the

 June

 2016

 Orlando

 attack ,

 which

 killed

 49

 people.

 Still,

 violence

 levels in

 the

 United

 States c ould rise

 over

 the

 next

 year

 depending

 on

 political

 polarization, the

 persistence of

 the

 Covid-19

 pandemic

 (and r eactions

 to

 polic y

 decisions

 to

 mitigate

 its

 spr ead), worsening ec onomic

 c onditions,

 gr owing concerns

 about immigr ation (whether r eal or

 perceived), r acial injustice,

 or

 other factors.

 It

 is also pos sible that

 the

 or ganizational structure of

 extr emism

 c ould evolve fr om

 today ’ s

 decentr alized landscape to

 include

 more hierarchically structured gr oups.

 The

 r est of

 this

 r eport

 is divided into

 thr ee sections.

 The first defines

 terr orism and

 diff er entiates

 this

 r eport ’ s f ocus on

 terr orism fr om

 other phenomena,

 such

 as

 hate

 crimes and

 riots.

 The

 sec ond

 section

 outlines

 and analyzes the

 2020

 terr orism data.

 The

 thir d

 explor es f uture developments,

 including

 the

 potential

 f or

 violence

 after the

 2020

 pr esidential

 election.

 DEFINING

 TERRORISM

 This

 r eport

 f ocuses on

 terrorism—not

 other is sues,

 such as

 hate

 crimes,

 pr otests,

 riots,

 or

 br oader

 civil

 unrest .

 Terr orism is the

 deliber ate use—or

 thr eat—of

 violence

 by non-state

 actors

 in

 or der

 to

 achieve

 political

 goals

 and

 cr eate a

 br oad

 psy chological

 impact . 8

  V iolence

 and

 the

 thr eat of

 violence

 ar e important

 components

 of

 terr orism.

 This analysis divides terr orism into

 sever al categories:

 r eligious, ethnonationalist ,

 violent

 far-right ,

 violent

 far-left ,

 and

 other (which

 includes

 terr orism that

 does not

 fit

 neatly

 into

 an y

 of

 the

 other categories). 9

  T erms such

 as

 far-right and

 far-left terr orism do not

 c orr espond to

 mainstr eam political

 parties in

 the

 United

 States,

 such

 as

 the

 Republican and

 Democr atic parties, which

 eschew terr orism.

 N or

 do they

 c orr espond to

 vast majority of

 political

 c onservatives and

 liberals

 in the

 United

 States,

 who do not

 support

 terr orism.

 Instead, terr orism is orchestrated by

 a

 small

 set of

 violent

 extr emists. A s

 terr orism scholar Walter

 L aqueur

 ar gues,

 “terr orist movements

 ar e usually small; some

 ver y

 small

 indeed,

 and while

 historians

 and

 sociologists can

 sometimes

 acc ount

 f or

 mas s

 movements,

 the

 movements

 of

 small

 particles in politics

 as

 in

 ph ysics often

 def y

 an y

 explanation . ” 10

 R eligious

 terr orism

 includes

 violence

 in

 support

 of

 a

 faith- based

 belief

 system,

 such

 as

 Islam,

 Judaism,

 Christianity ,

 or Hinduism.

 The

 primary

 thr eat fr om

 r eligious terr orists in

 United

 States comes

 fr om

 Salafi-jihadists

 inspired by the

 Islamic

 State and

 al-Qaeda. 11

  E THNONATIONALIST

 terr orism r ef ers

 to

 violence

 in

 support

 of

 ethnic

 or

 nationalist

 goals, which

 often

 include

 struggles

 of

 self-determination

 and separ atism

 along ethnic

 or

 nationalist

 lines.

 Due

 to

 the r elatively low

 levels of

 ethnonationalist

 terr orism in

 the United

 States—no

 such

 incidents

 occurr ed in

 2020—this brief does not

 addr es s

 ethnonationalist

 terr orism. 12

  F AR - right

 terr orism

 r ef ers

 to

 the

 use or

 thr eat of

 violence

 by subnational

 or

 non-state

 entities

 whose goals

 may include r acial or

 ethnic

 supr emac y;

 opposition

 to

 government authority; anger

 at women,

 including

 fr om

 the

 in voluntar y celibate (or

 “incel”)

 movement ;

 belief

 in

 certain c onspirac y theories,

 such

 as

 QAnon;

 and

 outr age

 against certain policies,

 such

 as

 abion. 13

  Some

 extr emists

 on

 the

 violent far-right have supported “ acceler ationism, ”

 which

 includes taking

 actions

 to

 pr omote

 social upheaval and

 incite

 a

 civil

 war . 14

  F AR - LEFT

 terr orism

 in volves the

 use or

 thr eat of violence

 by

 subnational

 or

 non-state

 entities

 that

 oppose capitalism,

 imperialism,

 and

 colonialism;

 advocate black nationalism;

 pursue en vir onmental

 or

 animal

 rights issues; espouse pr o- c ommunist

 or

 pr o-socialist

 beliefs; or support

 a

 decentr alized

 social and

 political

 system such

 as

 anarchism. 15

  Other

 in volves the

 use or

 thr eat of

 violence

 by subnational

 or

 non-state

 entities

 that

 do not

 neatly

 fit

 into an y

 of

 the

 above

 categories, such

 as

 the

 anti-government Boogaloo

 movement ,

 whose adher ents

 aim

 to

 start

 a

 civil war

 (or

 “ boogaloo”)

 in

 the

 United

 States. 16

 In

 f ocusing

 on

 terr orism,

 this

 r eport

 does not

 c over

 thbr oader

 cate...

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