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Equit y
R es ea r ch A mer ic a s
|
U nit ed
S ta tes
B en
C haiken
is a ss um ing
lea d
c over a g e of
Ga m ing
T echnol o g y .
We
m a int a in
a n
U nderper f o r m r a ti ng on
S c ient if i c
Ga m es
( S GM S )
bu t
lower
our
ta r g et
p r ic e to
$8
(f r om
$22 ) ,
w e r edu ce
ou r r a ti ng to
U nder pe r f o r m
(f r om
N e utr a l)
on
IGT
a nd
lower
ou r
ta r g e t
pr ic e to
$5
(f r om
$19 ) ,
a nd w e
r e duce
ou r
r a ti ng
to
N eu tr a l
(f r om
O utper f or m )
f or
Pla y A G S
( A GS )
a nd
lowe r
ou r
ta r g et pr ic e
to
$3
(f r om
$24 ) .
While
the
s lot
m a chine
business
ha s
been
k nown
f or
it s
r ecur r in g r evenue
a nd
r es il ient
business m odel,
w e thi nk chang es
a r e coming
to
the
industry
w hic h
coul d caus e
ea r ning s
to
decel er a te
a nd
m ultipl e
ex pa ns ion
ha r der
to
come
by .
We
s ee
the
f oll ow ing hea dw inds
impa ct ing
the
s lot
m a chi nes
s ect or :
( 1 )
a s
s por ts
b ett ing
e x pa nds ,
w e
thi nk
thi s coul d
change
how
ca s ino
ope r a tor s
thi nk
a bout
ca pit a l
a ll oca ti on,
s hif ti n g
s pa ce
pr eviously r es erved
f or
s lot
m a chi nes
a nd
a ll oca ti ng
to
s por ts
book
a nd
r ela ted
a ct ivit ies ,
( 2 )
p r oduc t dif f e r enti a ti on
w ill
be
ha r de r
to
come
by ,
leading
to
a
m ea n
r e ver s ion
w it h
s m a ll er
oper a tor s ta k ing
s ha r e
a t
the
ex pense
o f
m or e
es t a bli s hed
player s
s uch
a s
S GMS
a nd
IGT ,
a nd
( 3 )
w e thi nk
a
s lowing
end - m a r k et
w ill
drive
a n
ea r ning s
decel er a ti on,
a s
w e
thi nk
2019
w a s
the
hig h w a ter
m a r k
f or
ca s ino
opening s /ex pa ns ions,
w it h
li m it ed
w hit e
s pa ce
f or
f utur e
opening s
a nd nea r /medium - ter m
bud g et
constr a int s
f oll ow ing
C O VID - 19
pa n dem ic .
Despite
g r a bbing
th e hea dli nes
over
the
la s t
two
y ea r s ,
w e
don’t
s ee
S por ts
bett i ng
of f s ett ing
a
decl ini n g
s lot s business
f or
the
tec hnolo g y
s uppli er s ,
whom
p r ovide
a
s olutio n
w hic h
w e
thi nk
w ill
becom e comm oditiz ed
or
b r oug ht
in
hous e,
w it h
the
winner s
be ing
s po r ts
book
pla tfor m s /oper a tor s
w it h the
bes t
customer
a cqui s it ion
s tr a teg y
r a ther
than
t echnol og y
pr o vider s
such a s
S GMS
a nd
IGT.
■ S c i e n ti fi c G ames:
B en
C haik e n
a ss um e s
lea d
cover a g e w it h
a n
U nderper f o r m
r a t in g
a nd s ee
thr ee
d r iver s
tha t
coul d
caus e
ea r ning s
to
de cel er a te:
( 1 )
s t r uct ur a l
conc er ns
a r ound the
compr es s ion
of
U S
s lot
f loo r s
f r om
the
e x pa ns ion
of
s por ts
bett ing ,
( 2 )
m a r k et
s ha r e r isk ,
a s
w e
thi nk
S G MS
g a r ner ed
outsized
s ha r e
in
2019
a s
it
perta in s
to
s ales
to
new ca s inos,
combined
w it h
ou r
vie w
of
a
de cl ini ng
end - m a r k et
in
new /ex pa ns ion
( e.g .,
new ca s ino
opening s ) ,
coul d
c r ea te
a s ubs ta nti a l
dr a w
down ,
a nd
( 3 )
S GMS
ha s
outsized
s ha r e in
the
“r epla cement”
m a r k et,
b ut
w e
s ee
r isk
to
consens us
es ti m a tes
a s
s om e
of
thi s g r ow th
is 1 x .
■ In ternati o nal
G ame
Te c h n o l o g y:
T her e
a r e
f our
dr iver s
tha t
m a k e
u s
m or e
ca uti ous on IGT
a nd
s uppor t
our
U nderper f or m
r a ti n g :
( 1 )
U ncer ta int y
a r ound
Ita ly
f r om
both
a r eg ula tor y
s ta ndpoint
( ta x
&
other
r es tr i ctions) ,
a nd
a
pos t
C O VI D - 19
economic
r ecove r y ,
( 2 )
compr es s ion
to
U S
s lot
f loor s
f r om
the
ex pa ns ion
o f
s po r ts
bett in g,
( 3 )
s t r uct u r a l hea dw inds
a r ound
inc r ea s ed
competition,
a nd
( 4 )
the
ER I /C Z R
mer g er
poten ti a ll y impa ct ing
pa r ti ci pa ti on
uni ts. ■ P l ay AGS :
We
thi nk A GS
is t he
bes t
pos it ioned
a nd
a tt r a ct ively
valued
to
pa r ti ci pa te
in
thi s s pa ce,
a nd
ther e
a r e
f ou r
d r iver s
tha t
determine
our
r ela ti ve
p r ef er ence
f or
A G S
ver s us la r g er
pee r s ,
S GMS
a nd
IGT :
( 1 )
s m a ll er
s uppli e r s
ta k ing
s ha r e,
( 2 )
ex pa ns ion
into
new m a r k ets, ( 3 )
hi g h
r ecu rr in g
r evenue
str ea m ,
a nd
( 4 )
r ela ti ve
a tt r a ct ive
valua ti on .
■ Ri sks:
H ig hly
competi ti ve
m a r k et,
m a int a ini ng
pr oduct
pe r f o r m ance
a nd
m a r k et
s h a r e g ains, dependence
on
k ey
per s o nnel,
pr oduct
r eplacement
cy c les, customer
conc entr a ti on a nd
sens it ivit y
of
end - m a r k ets
to
the
U S
c ons umer .
Rese ar c h
An aly sts
B en j am i n
Ch a i k en
212
325
2585
benjamin. c h a ik en@ c redit - s uis s e. c om
B en
Co m b e s,
CF A
212
538
2383
ben. c om bes @ c red it - s uis s e. c om
S a r a h
Mu rr a y
212
325
2282
s a ra h. m urray @ c redit - s uis s e. c om
D IS CLOSU RE
AP P END IX
AT
TH E
B ACK
O F
TH IS
REP O RT
CONTAIN S
IMP O RTANT
D IS CLOSU RE S ,
ANALYST CE RT IFICATIONS, LE G AL
E NTITY
D IS CLOSU RE
AND
TH E
S TA TU S
O F
NON - U S
ANALYSTS.
U S
Discl os ur e :
C r edit
S uisse does a nd
s eek s
to
do
business Gamin g
Tec hnology
T he
Return
Of
S ports
Won’t
Save
Us
C a s inos
&
Ga m ing
|
A ss um ing
C over a g e
w it h
companies
covered
in
it s
r e s ea r ch
r epor ts.
A s
a
r es ult ,
inve s tor s
s hould
be
a w a r e
tha t
the
F ir m
m a y
ha ve
a
conf li ct
of
int e r es t
tha t
coul d
Exe cu tive
Summ ary
T he
f a r
r ea chi ng
s oci a l
a nd
economic
impa ct s
of
the
C O VID - 19
pandem ic
a r e
li k ely
to
ha ve
a s ig nif ic a nt
impa ct
on
the
Ga m ing
T echnol og y
indust r y ,
not
just
in
the
s hor t
ter m ,
but
po tent ia ll y f or
y ea r s
to
come.
C a s ino
cl os ur es
w ill
m ea n
tha t
p a r ti ci pa ti on/l ea s ed
s lot
m a chi nes
a r e
not g ener a ti ng a ny
r evenue,
a nd
f ix e d
f ees
a r e unli k ely
to
be
col le ct ed. T her e is a s tr ong
a r g ument to
be
m a de
tha t
even
a s
ca s ino s
r eopen,
da il y
y iel ds
w ill
be
below
pr e -C or ona vir us
levels
a s customer s
a void
cr ow ded
a r ea s
li k e s lot
f loor s .
Wi th
thi s
in
mind,
oper a tor s
m a y
a lso
lea r n
to
do m or e
w it h
less
w hil e
c losed,
w hi ch
coul d
impa ct
f utur e
s lot
pur c ha s es .
A s
oper a tor s
r etu r n
to nor m a lc y ,
the r e
w ill
li k ely
be
r ed uced
ca pex
bud g ets
f r om
lost
r evenues
w hil e
ca s inos
r em a in s hut,
w hic h
coul d
r es ult
in
a
la r g e
cont r a ct ion
in
the
r eplacement
m a r k et
f o r
2020
a nd
li k ely 2021 .
Keep
in
mind,
S GMS/IG T
a lso
oper a te
in
lotter y ,
w hic h
w e
ex pect
w ill
f a r e
bett e r
than g a m ing .
L oca ti ons
wher e
lotter y
ti ck ets
a r e
s old,
both
dr a w
b a s ed
a nd
inst a nt
ti ck et,
s uch
a s g r oce r y
s tor es
a nd
g a s
s ta ti ons ,
ha ve
la r g ely
r em a ined
open.
A s
m enti oned
pr eviously ,
l ott ery s ales held
up
ex tr em ely
w ell
dur ing
the
la s t
r ecess ion,
down
just
0.5 %
in
2009 ,
a nd
r eboundin g in
2010
up
2.1 % ,
however
w e feel
a ny
r es il ienc y
in
L ott e r y
w ill
b e of f s et
by
s tr uct u r a l
conc er ns in
s lot
machine
sa les not
yet
ca ptur ed
by
c onsens us
estima tes. We
s ee m ultipl e hea dw inds
to
Ga m ing
T ech, a s
slot
f loor s
s hr i nk to
m a k e wa y
f or
s por ts
book s , consolida ti on
in
the
ca s ino
indus tr y
diminishes
s uppli e r s ’
power ,
s m a ll er
oper a tor s
cont inue
to ta k e
s ha r e,
customer
ca pex
bu dg ets
a r e
li k ely
r educed
a s
the
C O VID - 19
pandem ic
lea ds
to wide - s pr ea d
cl os ur e s ,
a nd
new
ca s ino
opening s
s low.
Wi th
thi s
ba ck dr op,
w e
pr e f er
s m a ll er oper a tor
A G S
over
la r g e r
peer s
S GMS
a nd
IGT ,
a s
it
cont inues
to
ta k e
s ha r e
a nd
ha s
a
cl ea r
pa th
to
g r ow th
thr ou g h
new
m a r k ets.
W e
don ’ t
s ee
S por ts
bett ing
of f s et ti ng
a
decl ini n g
s lo t m a r k et ,
a s
w e
thi nk
the
tec h
s olut ion
pr ovided
by
IGT
a nd
S GM S
w ill
become
comm oditiz ed, w it h
the
winner s
being
s por ts
b ett ing
pla tfor m s / ope r a tor s
w i th
the
bes t
customer
a cqui s it ion s tr a teg y .
U nli k e
tr a dit iona l
g a m ing
tec h
(i. e.,
s lot s ) ,
w e
s ee
t he
lotter y
industry
a s
hig hl y def ens ive,
decl ini n g
just
0.5 %
d ur ing
the
f ina nci a l
cr isis of
2008 /0 9 ,
a nd
ha s
g r own
a t
a 4.3 %
C A GR
f o r
the
pa s t
decade.
T h e
N orth
A mer ic a n
L ott ery
bus in es s
is
es s enti a ll y
a n
oli g opoly , w it h
hig h
ba rr ie r s
to
entr y ,
however
s ta bil it y
in
lot te r y
does
not
o ff s et
our
conc er ns
a r ound
th e la r g er
slot
business .
F or
f urther
deta il s ,
s ee
our
ini ti a ti on
s li de
deck :
Ga ming ,
L odg i n g
&
L eisur e :
T he
R eturn
O f Va ca ti on
A f te r
Is ola ti on .
Indu stry
Overview
Slot I nd ustry
S lot
m a chi nes
a r e
the
co r ner s t one
of
ca s ino
g a m bli ng
in
the
U .S .,
s uppor ti n g
a
s teady
a nd g r ow ing
indust r y ,
a s
w ell
a s
num...
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