下面是小编为大家整理的澳大利亚股票策略：COVID-19峰值对对消费者影,响深入研究（全文）,供大家参考。
G l ob al Re searc h
22
M ay
2020
A u s t ra l i an
E q u i t y
S t ra t e g y
UBS
Evi dence
Lab
inside:
A
dee p
dive
on
the consume r"s
pul se
at
the
pe ak
of
C OVID - 19
In c ome e xpe ct atio ns
slashed b ut spendin g
in te ntio ns
bett er
than fear e d
The
fou rth
wav e
of
the
UB S
E viden ce
Lab
cons umer
s urvey
was
conducted
in
the
firs t two
w eeks
of
Ap ril , at
the
p eak
of
COVID -19 f ears.
Although Ap ril
retai l
sal e s
were
ver y weak,
the
su rv ey
indi cat es
the
decline
in
sp end i ng in tent io n s
has
been
better
than
we feared
du e
to
consumers
inte n di ng to
save
less
and
take
on more
deb t
(pag e
7 ).
Bu t, vuln erabiliti e s
r emain ,
wit h
39%
havin g
le ss
than
o ne
mon t h
of
b uffers
if
they
lo s e thei r jobs
( Figu r e
5 ).
Hence,
it
app ears
Jo bKeep er
is
supp orting sp en ding
inte nti o ns
o f lower
in come
and
cash -flow
cons train e d
househ ol d s.
Thi s
i s
bro ad ly
cons i sten t
wit h retai l
chann e l
checks
and
the
UB S
Econo mic s
cash -flo w
mod e l . From
our su rv ey
resu lts, our three
key
fin ding s
are
1)
high er
in come
co ns umers
have
been
cutting bac k by
more than
lower
in come
cons umer s
( Figure
17 ),
2)
the
"un derlying "
deman d
f or
pro perty ( Figure
22 )
an d new
car s
( Figure
25 )
is
l ikel y
g reater
than
the
offi cial
data
s ugg est s
and
3)
COVID -19 re strictions
have
s een
an
ac celeratio n i n th e
ri se
of
o nline
sh o ppin g ( Fig ure 31 ).
Future
su rv eys
(esp eciall y
t he
Jun e/ J ul y
update)
will sh ed
li gh t
on the
nat ure
of
the recovery
and
the
impacts
on c omp ani es
a s
we
exit
f rom economic
hibernation . Se ctor
and
sto ck
i mplicat io ns
In
retail ,
we
li k e
JB
Hi -Fi,
Premier
In vestments,
Ad air s
and
Kogan
for
their
stro ng er on lin e
pl atf orm s . However,
in t enti o ns
for
ho me
improvement
stren gt hen e d as
peopl e sp en d more
time
at
ho me
( Fi gu re
19 ),
which
is
po si tive
for
Wesfarmers,
a nd als o fo r Metcash ,
Harv ey
No rman
an d
JB
Hi -Fi.
In
REI Ts
we
li ke
Go o dman
Gr oup
for
their lo gistics
exposu re.
We
are
les s
po si t ive
on th e
retail
REI TS,
Vic inity
and
Sc entre,
gi ve n the
stru ctural
sh ift
away
from go i ng to
sh opp i ng centres.
A p os iti ve
data
po i nt
for
REA and
Do main
i s
the
sh are
lo o kin g
to
bu y
a
pro perty
is
steady
( Figure
22 ).
Res il ien t deman d
f or
u s ed
car s,
a s
well
the
sh ift
aw ay
from
pub li c
trans port,
is
p os iti ve
for Bap cor.
We
are
neu tral
on the
Banks , b ut
n ote
ol der
re sp ond e nts
became
mo re
will ing to
ask
for
a
di s coun t
on thei r mortg age
rate
( Figure
44 ),
an d that the
aver a ge
impli e d di sco un t
requir ed
for
customer s
to
all ow
a
fin t ech
acc ess
to
thei r data
has
fall en
( Figure 40 ).
Rea l
Esta te
and
Buy
Now
P ay
Later
and
ES G:
add itiona l
i ns i gh ts Ou r
Rea l
Estate
anal ysts
have
als o
anal ysed
t he
s urvey
data
on
sh opp in g
t rend s.
Ou r TMT
analyst s
h ave
als o
ana lys ed
the
s urvey
data
on
Buy
N o w
Pa y
Later .
The
latest results
for
ESG
qu estion s
b eg in
on pag e
15.
Fig ure
1 :
I nc o me ex pect atio ns
decl i ned by
more than spe nd in g
i ntenti ons
40%
Equ it y
S trat eg y
Austr al i a
Pi eter
Stol tz,
CFA Ana l yst pi e ter.stol tz@ u bs.com
+61 -2-9324
3779
Ji m
Xu Associ a te
A na l yst ji m.xu@ubs.com
+61 -2-9324
2665
G eor ge
Thar en ou
E conomi st ge orge.tharenou @ ubs.com
+61 -2-9324
3520
Carl os
Cac ho
E conomi st ca rlos.cacho@ubs .com
+61 -2-9324
3663
Ben G il bert
Ana l yst be n.gil be rt @ ubs.c om
+61 -2-9324
2782
Jonath an
Mott
Ana l yst j ona than.m ott @ u bs.com
+61 -2-9324
3864
Paul Wi nter
Ana l yst pa ul-j .w i nter@ ub s.com
+61 -2-9324
2080
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
Q 3-19 Q 4-19 Q 1-20 Q 2-20 Incom e
e xp e ct a ti ons
- Ne t
( m ore
vs . le ss )
S pe nd ing
in te nt ions
- Ne t
( m ore
v s . le ss )
S ourc e :
UB S
E vid e n ce
La b
ww w.u bs.com/ i nvestm entresea rch
Thi s
rep ort
has
been
prep are d b y
UB S
Sec uri ties
Au stralia
Lt d.
AN ALYS T
CERTIFI CATION
AN D
REQU I R E D
D I S C L O SU R E S
B E G I N ON
PAGE
19 .
UB S
do e s
an d s eeks
to
do bu s i nes s
wit h comp ani es
cover ed
i n its
re search
r eports.
As
a
resu lt,
in vest ors
shou l d be
aware
th at
the
firm may
have
a
conflict
of
i nteres t
that co ul d affec t
the
ob jectivity
of
t hi s
rep ort. In ve sto rs
s houl d co ns i der
this
Con ten ts How are
con s umers
r es pon ding
to
C OVI D -19 ?
............................................ 4 Macro
insi gh t s
............................................................................................ 6 Consum er
insi ght s
...................................................................................... 7 House hold
ex pe c tations
by
income
............................................................. 8 House hold
fi n an c es
& hom e
improv emen t
.................................................. 8 Housing
insi g ht s
.......................................................................................... 9 Sh o ppin g centres
and
onlin e
..................................................................... 11 Ba n ks
........................................................................................................ 13 Ho w
much
ar e
consu me rs
willing to
p ay
fo r ESG ?
..................................... 15 How do es
this
survey"s
s ample
c omp are
t o the p opulati on?
...................... 17
In
Jul y
2019
U BS
Evidence
L ab
launched
a
quar ter ly
survey
of
mo re
th an
1,000 Aus tr alian
con sumers.
In
Dec embe r 2019 ,
t he
surve y
wa s
separated
into quar ter ly and
semi - annu al
question
set s.
In
th is
updat e
we
comp are
th e
latest
survey
result s (#4)
with
t hose
fr om
February
(#3)
and
prior
per iods .
Fig ure
2 :
Survey Hig hl ights
–
Q2 - 20
s urvey vs.
Q1 - 20
su rv e y
r esul ts
What
surprised
us the
mo st…
S ourc e : UB S
E videnc e
L a b … 35%
(do w n
fr om
46% ) of
r e spondents
ex pe ct
t he ir hous e hold
i ncome
to i nc rea se
in
the
n e xt
12
months
… 31%
o f
r e spondents (~fl a t
f rom
3 3% )
use
Buy Now
Pa y
La ter
w i th
t he ir
de bi t
card
link e d
…
25%
o f
r e spo ndents
(up fr om
11 % )
e xpe ct
a
fall
in their
house hold
i ncome
in the
ne xt
12
mon t hs
… 35%
o f
r e spondents (prev.
38% )
w oul dn"t
pa y
e xtr a
for
so ci a ll y - res pons ibl e
goods
but 34% ( prev.
29%) w ould
pa y
doubl e
… 32%
(~fl a t
fr om
34% )
of res ponde nts
intend
on buyi ng
a
ca r
in
th e
ne xt
6
months
… 49%
o f
r e spondents (prev.
51%) w oul dn"t
pa y e xtr a
for
rene w a bl e
e nergy but 23%
( prev.
2 0% ) w ould
pa y
doubl e
… 31%
o f
r e spondents
(up fr om
26 % )
a re
wi lling
to ask
for
a
di scount
on
their mortgage
in
the
ne xt
12
months
… 11%
o f
r e spondents (prev.
10% )
w ould
gi ve
up 5%
of
retireme nt
sa vings for
ES G
i nve stments
a nd 14%
(prev.
13 % )
w ould
gi ve
up
10%
Prior
publ ic a tions Equit y
Str ateg y
July -19
Retai l
July -19
Rea l
Estate
Ju ly -19
Medi a
a nd
Telc o
Ju ly -19
Utilitie s
July -19
Equit y
Str ateg y
Dec -19
Retai l
Dec -19
UB S
Res earc h THESIS
MAP
MO ST
F AVOUR ED
LEAST
FAV OUR ED
St rong er
o nl ine
(JBH,
PMV,
AD H,
KGN) Industr ial
REIT s
(GMG)
On line
media/prop er ty l istin gs
( REA,
DHG ) Autos
(B AP )
In - store
foc use d
re ta iler s Reta il
R EIT s
(SCG,
VCX)
PIVOTAL
QUESTIO NS
Q:
How
ar e
consume rs
resp on ding
to
C O VID - 19
and
fiscal
s timul us ?
Co nsumers
are
concerned
about
thei r jo b s,
b ut
sp en di ng in t enti o ns
are
better
than
feared
( li kely
partly du e
to
Job Keeper).
A
si gn if icant
sh are
of
c on s umers
expected
thei r
wor kin g
hours
an d
wages
to decrease
du e
to
COVID -19 ( Figure
3
and
Figure
4 ).
There
w as
a
ju mp in
"j ob securi ty "
as
a
reaso n for feeli ng less
posi tive
abo ut
their
hou se hold "s
f i nan cial
outlook ( Figure
9 ).
Alt hough i ncome
expect atio ns have
been
sl a shed,
s pendi ng intention s
have
n ot
been
cut
by
as
much
because
consumers
ar e
plannin g to
s ave
les s
and
take
on more
deb t
(pag e
7 ).
Higher
in come
consumers
hav e
cut
back
thei r sp end i ng by more
than
lo w er
in come
con su mers
( Figure
17 ).
Hence,
Job Keeper
app e ars
to
be
supp orting
t he sp en di ng inte nt io n s
o f
lower
in come
earners.
Q:
What
i s
the
o utlook
f or housing
and
car
s ale s?
Ho use
pri ce
expect atio ns
and
car
pu rc hase
in t enti o ns
decline d, bu t
demand
for
pro perty
and
car s
is
sti ll better
than
h ousing
and
car
sales
volu mes
dat a
su g ges ts.
Co ns umers
expect
worse
hous e
p rice
gro wt h in
the
next
12 mon th s
than
in
the
pri or 12 mon th s
( Figure
20 ),
bu t
30 %
of
consumers
are
sti ll
looki ng to
bu y
prop erty
( Figure
22 ).
P urchas e
inten ti on s
f or new
car s
have
fall e n more
than
f or secon d hand car s
( Figure
25 ) . However,
w e
think t he
un derly in g d ema nd fo r new
car s
is
lik ely
higher
than
impli e d b y the
larg e
fall
in
actual
c ar
sales
( Figure
26 ).
Q:
How
should
investors positio n?
We
li ke
1)
retail ers
with
stro ng on line
pl atf orms
over
tho se
th at
rely
more
on in - sto re
sal e s,
2)
in dustrial REI Ts
with
exp os ure
to
l ogis ti cs
over
retail
...