下面是小编为大家整理的-2020年东盟（2022年）,供大家参考。
With slower global growth expected this year, ASEAN’s prospects will depend on its own devices: boosting domestic demand Fortunately, the region is about to embark on a new investment cycle, led by a planned surge in public infrastructure spending ASEAN growth should thus improve in 2020, but enacting key reforms this year is essential for boosting potential this decade 8 January 2020
2019 ended on an optimistic note amidst an amelioration in US-China trade relations and improving global data. This optimism may dissipate. Progress beyond a Phase 1 deal is
unlikely, and global growth may slow, led by weaker activity in China and the Eurozone (not to mention geopolitical risks). ASEAN will thus have to rely on its own devices – domestic demand – to drive growth this year. We look at five big themes for 2020. Export stabilization. Our relatively subdued global growth outlook bodes poorly for trade; however, we expect short-term stabilization in the electronics sector to continue, driven by low inventories and a gradual 5G handset cycle. Meanwhile, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Singapore continue to gain export share thanks to strong FDI commitments and flows. Investment rebound. Our highest 2020 conviction is that the region is set to see a synchronized rebound in public investment, especially in the Philippines, Indonesia, and Thailand, but to a lesser extent in Singapore and Malaysia, too. This comes after a collapse in spending in 2019. We believe that a fiscally led rebound in public investment may also crowd-in private spending, particularly in the Philippines and Indonesia. Stable consumption. ASEAN growth is driven primarily by private consumption. Unfortunately, consumer spending looks set to slow marginally from a strong 2019. We see a risk that a very gradual labour market deterioration since 2H19 will weigh on activity. However, fundamentals are still strong, and fiscal support in 2020 should filter through to the consumer. As a result, spending won’t fall far from trend. Monetary support. The region continues to see broad-based disinflation, a result of both weak domestic demand, currency strength, and the impact of the US-China trade tensions. This allows for continued, if more limited, policy easing. We forecast 50bp of policy rate cuts in both Indonesia and the Philippines, and 25bp in Malaysia and Vietnam. We expect the MAS to adopt a neutral slope in the fall, and see a risk of further policy easing in Thailand if the currency strengthens further. Reforms and deals. 2020 is an essential year for reforms. In the Philippines and Indonesia, legislatures will deliberate on bills that can concretely raise competitiveness. Meanwhile, in Thailand and Vietnam, fiscal-related reforms will be critical. 2020 is also expected to be the year of the ASEAN-centred Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which is expected to be signed, albeit without India. Other trade deals, too, are expected to be implemented or advanced. We discuss further. Joseph Incalcaterra Chief Economist, ASEAN The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited joseph.f.incalcaterra@hsbc.com.hk +852 2822 4687 Noelan Arbis Economist The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited noelan.arbis@hsbc.com.hk +852 2822 4325 Yun Liu Economist The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited yun.liu@hsbc.com.hk +852 2822 4297 Maitreyi Das Associate Bangalore
Disclosures & Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. Issuer of report: The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited
View HSBC Global Research at: https://www.research.hsbc.com Economics ASEAN Searching within ASEAN in 2020
GDP % CPI % Budget Bal. (%GDP) Current Acct (%GDP) USD/FX Monetary Fiscal 2019f 2020f 2021f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2020/2019 2020/2019
Indonesia 5.0 5.0 5.2 3.0 2.9 3.1 -2.3 -2.4 -2.4 -2.7 -2.8 -2.9 14000 14200 14200
Vietnam
7.0 6.6 6.7 2.8 3.8 3.5
-3.6
-3.4
-3.3 2.8
2.0 2.1 23200 23450 23450
Key
Higher
Lower Looser Tighter Neutral
1. An overview of key economic forecasts for ASEAN
Malaysia
4.5
4.3
4.4
0.7
1.7
1.9
-3.4
-3.2
-3.0
3.2
3.2
3.0
4.18
4.22
4.22
Philippines
5.8
6.4
6.5
2.4
2.9
2.9
-2.4
-3.2
-3.2
-2.2
-2.4
-2.1
50.5
53.0
53.0
Singapore
0.7
1.5
1.8
0.6
0.7
0.7
-1.1
-3.0
-2.7
17.7
16.6
16.3
1.36
1.38
1.38
Thailand
2.5
2.7
3.0
0.7
0.8
0.9
-3.0
-3.0
-2.8
6.3
6.0
5.9
30.2
30.5
30.5
Source: CEIC, HSBC
Theme 1: Managing a gloomy global trade outlook
2019 ended on a decidedly optimistic note. PMI data showed welcome signs of stabilization, allaying fears of a global recession, while American and Chinese trade negotiators are preparing to sign a “Phase 1” deal. However, we believe that global growth is still set to deteriorate slightly in 2020, in particular due to a slowing Chinese economy and still-anaemic activity in the Eurozone (see Global Economics Quarterly: Carried by consumption, 16 December 2019). Moreover, progress in US-China trade talks beyond a limited “Phase 1” deal is unlikely going into the US election season. What does this mean for ASEAN? Given the above outlook, a broad-based export rebound for Asia is unlikely (see Asian Economics Quarterly, 18 December 2019), but we believe there are some positive sub-themes. Electronics stabilization, but no bounce. 2019 was a tough year for exports, with particular weakness in the electronics industry (Chart 2). Lately, however, there have been some green shoots for the sector, which may see further stabilization into 2020. On the one hand, firms may build back inventory from low levels, as seen in the sector PMIs and alluded to by key chip firms. On the other, we are likely to see a prolonged, albeit not imminent, handset replacement cycle in the coming years as 5G adoption grows. HSBC tech analysts forecast the global 5G handset penetration rate to increase from 2% in 2019 to 16% in 2020 before jumping to 43% in 2021. Tech firms in China and Korea are the pioneers of the new technology, but ASEAN will benefit due to its presence along the semiconductor supply chain (see ASEAN Perspectives: All about semis, 30 August 2019). In short, further stabilization in electronics exports is likely, but don’t bet on an imminent super-cycle (Asia Chart of the Week: Electronics surge, really?, 13 December 2019).
2. Export performance in 2019: Electronics vs. overall (please fix to side-by-side)
contribution, ppt % y-o-y YTD 2019 3. Indicators point to consumer electronics stabilization, but no bounce 60 9.0 6.0 3.0 0.0 -3.0 -6.0 -9.0 -12.0 9.0 6.0 3.0 0.0 -3.0 -6.0 -9.0 -12.0 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Consumer electronics PMI Industrial electronics PMI
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: CEIC, HSBC Electronics Overall (RHS) Singapore Thailand Malaysia Philippines Vietnam
4. Trade diversion is real: Forward-looking FDI indicators continue to improve
% of GDP 12
10
8
6
4
2
0 15 16 17 18 19 Thailand Vietnam Malaysia Philippines Indonesia 5. Industrial production in Vietnam and Malaysia outperforms the region %y-o-y, 3mma 15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0 16 17 18 19 Malaysia
Singapore Thailand Taiwan South Korea Vietnam Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: CEIC, HSBC
What about the auto sector, which also underwent a significant slow-down in 2019? HSBC equity analysts believe that, globally, an imminent rebound is unlikely, with risks skewed to the downside. This poses headwinds for Thailand’s exports, as 15% of the country’s exports are in automotive- related goods. Meanwhile, Indonesia is hoping to play a key role in the global electric vehicle (EV) battery supply chain thanks to its prolific reserves of nickel, the main component in the latest- generation lithium ion batteries (From mining to EVs: Indonesia’s nickel ban in context, 8 November 2019). That said, this is still a medium-term story rather than a short-term one. Significant battery production capacity in Indonesia has yet to be completed. More broadly, EV demand globally is unlikely to surge in 2020 due to a potential rollback in subsidies in China, the largest market for EVs. Trade diversion is still a theme. Over the last two years, a key theme for ASEAN has been supply chain diversion alongside US-China trade tensions. We have argued that the main way to track this is forward-looking FDI indicators such as approvals or applications (see ASEAN Perspectives: Trade wars: much pain, some gain, 29 September 2019). On this front, the outlook is still bright for ASEAN (Chart 4). Vietnam, Singapore, and Malaysia lead the pack, but Thailand has also seen a surge in FDI interest (see: ASEAN race for FDI: Thailand and Philippines gap). Since the start of 2019, at least 50 MNCs, including tech giants like Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple, Sony, and Nintendo, are reported to be actively relocating, or in the process of relocating production from China to Southeast Asia (CNBC, 18 July 2019). Indonesia and the Philippines continue to be clear laggards in attracting FDI – but reforms that are currently up for discussion can reverse this (see page 14). Overall, new FDI in ASEAN will result in capacity additions throughout 2021, allowing for ASEAN to gain export market share.
6. Is a US-China deal a risk for ASEAN’s agricultural exports to China? Not really % of selective Chinese agricultural imports, 2018
100
80
60
40
20
0 Soybeans
Rice
Edible fruits US Brazil Thailand Vietnam
Others
7. ASEAN export to China: Vietnam and Indonesia exposed to commodities % of GDP 18
13
8
3
-2 07 18 07 18 07 18 07 18 07 18 07 18
SG VN MY TH PH ID Machinery Electronics Manufacturing Light Manuf Chemical Commodities
Source: UNCTAD, HSBC Source: UNCTAD, HSBC
Concerning trade diversion, a frequent question is whether ASEAN is simply benefiting due to transhipments – i.e. Chinese producers routing shipments through ASEAN to reach the US market. Sharp growth in both Chinese exports to ASEAN and ASEAN ex...