下面是小编为大家整理的航空航天与国防：流行病导航,供大家参考。
Aerospace and Defense Navigating the Pandemic
North America Equity Research March 2020
Aerospace & Defense Seth M. Seifman AC (212) 622-5597 seth.m.seifman@jpmorgan.com JPMA SEIFMAN <GO> J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Ben Arnstein (212) 622-6548 benjamin.e.arnstein@jpmorgan.com
See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Valuation
Metrics
Company
Price
Symbol
Rating
Shares Out
Market Cap
(bn)
CY19E
EPS CY20E
CY21E
CY19E
P/E CY20E CY21E
EV/EBITDA
CY20E
CY21E
EV/Sales
CY20E
CY21E
P/FCF
CY20E
CY21E
Price Target
Implied Upside
Aerospace/Integrated
Arconic
$15.85
ARNC
OW
445.3
7.1
2.12
1.50
1.60
7.5x
10.5x
9.9x
6.0x
5.9x
0.9x
0.9x
14.4x
12.9x
$20
26%
Boeing
$97.71
BA
N
565.4
55.2
(3.46)
0.15
12.00
NM
NM
8.1x
14.9x
5.7x
1.0x
0.8x
NM
10.6x
$130
33%
Bombardier a
C$
0.48
BBD/B
CT
N
2914.0
1.0
(0.10)
(0.09)
(0.02)
NM
NM
NM
7.3x
6.0x
0.5x
0.5x
NM
14.4x
na
na
Kaman
Corp
$37.69
KAMN
UW
28.1
1.1
1.98
2.70
2.90
19.0x
14.0x
13.0x
14.8x
9.4x
1.5x
1.5x
15.4x
12.3x
$43
14%
Spirit
AeroSystems
$19.11
SPR
N
104.6
2.0
5.56
(2.75)
1.95
3.4x
NM
9.8x
NM
11.7x
1.6x
1.2x
NM
NM
$30
57%
Textron
$25.45
TXT
OW
229.8
5.8
3.42
1.50
3.15
7.4x
17.0x
8.1x
8.5x
5.8x
0.7x
0.6x
NM
8.2x
$32
26%
TransDigm
$305.77
TDG
UW
56.3
17.2
19.65
13.45
13.91
15.6x
22.7x
22.0x
13.9x
13.6x
6.1x
6.0x
13.7x
22.7x
$320
5%
Triumph
Group
$4.55
TGI
N
52.4
0.2
2.93
1.07
0.82
1.6x
4.3x
5.5x
7.6x
6.8x
0.7x
0.7x
NM
NM
$10
120%
$90
9.1x
13.7x
10.9x
10.4x
8.1x
1.6x
1.5x
14.5x
13.5x
Defense
(Large
Cap)
General
Dynamics
$118.03
GD
OW
290.9
34.3
11.98
11.15
12.85
9.9x
10.6x
9.2x
9.1x
8.3x
1.2x
1.2x
11.9x
8.9x
$155
31%
Huntington
Ingalls
$169.47
HII
N
41.7
7.1
13.25
20.85
14.70
12.8x
8.1x
11.5x
6.7x
9.3x
0.9x
0.9x
11.8x
11.4x
$193
14%
L3Harris
Technologies
$160.14
LHX
OW
223.1
35.7
10.09
11.60
13.30
15.9x
13.8x
12.0x
11.4x
10.6x
2.1x
2.0x
13.0x
11.5x
$195
22%
Lockheed
Martin
$314.20
LMT
N
283.3
89.0
21.95
24.75
27.40
14.3x
12.7x
11.5x
10.1x
9.3x
1.6x
1.5x
14.2x
13.5x
$350
11%
Northrop
Grumman
$296.91
NOC
OW
170.0
50.5
21.18
23.75
26.95
14.0x
12.5x
11.0x
12.3x
11.3x
1.7x
1.6x
15.0x
13.3x
$347
17%
Raytheon
$121.34
RTN
OW
279.4
33.9
11.92
11.90
13.55
10.2x
10.2x
9.0x
6.2x
5.6x
1.1x
1.1x
9.2x
9.1x
$160
32%
$251
12.8x
11.3x
10.7x
9.3x
9.0x
1.4x
1.4x
12.5x
11.3x
Defense
Services
Booz
Allen
Hamilton
$64.13
BAH
N
141.4
9.1
3.08
3.58
4.04
20.8x
17.9x
15.9x
13.5x
12.4x
1.4x
1.3x
21.7x
17.0x
$69
8%
CACI
International
$180.85
CACI
N
25.5
4.6
10.43
13.74
15.16
17.3x
13.2x
11.9x
10.4x
9.4x
1.1x
1.0x
12.9x
10.1x
$220
22%
Leidos
$75.91
LDOS
N
145.0
11.0
5.15
5.70
6.80
14.7x
13.3x
11.2x
10.5x
8.5x
1.0x
0.9x
11.9x
10.5x
$99
30%
Science
Applications
International
$56.02
SAIC
OW
59.1
3.3
5.41
6.40
7.50
10.3x
8.8x
7.5x
7.9x
7.1x
0.7x
0.7x
7.3x
6.0x
$90
61%
$28
15.8x
13.3x
11.6x
10.6x
9.3x
1.1x
1.0x
13.5x
10.9x
Defense
(Smid
Cap)
Aerojet
Rocketdyne b
$40.77
AJRD
N
82.4
3.4
1.57
1.70
1.85
26.0x
24.0x
22.1x
9.1x
8.9x
1.5x
1.4x
17.1x
16.6x
$47
15%
Kratos
$10.95
KTOS
OW
109.9
1.2
0.34
0.45
0.53
32.6x
24.3x
20.6x
17.7x
15.7x
1.8x
1.7x
NM
NM
$15
37%
Maxar
Technologies b
$8.39
MAXR
OW
61.2
0.5
1.82
(1.15)
(0.25)
4.6x
NM
NM
7.8x
8.2x
2.0x
2.0x
NM
6.2x
$16
91%
Mercury
Systems
$69.55
MRCY
OW
53.2
3.7
1.95
2.21
2.37
35.6x
31.4x
29.3x
18.7x
17.4x
4.2x
3.9x
54.3x
42.3x
$72
4%
Average/Total:
$9
24.7x
26.6x
24.0x
13.3x
12.6x
2.4x
2.2x
35.7x
21.7x
S&P
500
(Consensus)
A
&
D
discount/(premium)
$2,409
SPX
148.56
166.31
187.45
16.2x
32%
14.5x
14%
12.9x
16%
Other
Financial
Metrics
Company
JPM FY1
EPS
Consensus FY1
EPS
JPM FY2
EPS
Consensus FY2
EPS
FCF
(per
share) CY20E
CY21E
FY19E
Sales
(bn) FY20E
FY21E
Operating
Margin
FY19E
FY20E
FY21E
Dividend Yield
Payout Ratio
"20
Market Cap
Net
Debt
EV
Net
Debt
/ "20
EBITDA
YTD
Return
Aerospace/Integrated
Arconic
1.50
2.11
1.60
2.42
1.10
1.23
14.2
12.5
12.5
7.3%
10.8%
11.0%
0.5%
5.3%
7.1
4.3
11.3
2.3x
-48%
Boeing
0.15
3.88
12.00
14.47
(12.47)
9.25
76.6
72.8
96.6
-2.6%
3.7%
11.2%
8.4%
NM
55.2
17.3
72.5
3.5x
-70%
Bombardier a
(0.09)
(0.14)
(0.02)
(0.03)
(0.04)
0.03
15.8
15.6
15.6
NM
3.5%
5.1%
0.0%
0.0%
1.0
7.1
8.0
6.4x
-75%
Kaman
Corp
2.70
2.44
2.90
2.73
2.45
3.06
1.1
0.9
0.9
6.1%
1.1%
1.1%
2.1%
29.6%
1.1
0.3
1.3
3.0x
-42%
Spirit
AeroSystems
(2.75)
0.03
1.95
4.01
(4.03)
0.22
7.9
4.5
6.3
9.7%
-6.1%
5.0%
0.2%
-1.5%
2.0
5.3
7.3
NM
-74%
Textron
3.60
3.47
3.15
3.87
0.34
3.09
13.6
11.1
12.9
7.9%
4.9%
7.7%
0.3%
5.3%
5.8
2.5
8.3
2.5x
-43%
TransDigm
15.85
19.50
24.85
22.58
22.39
13.50
5.9
5.2
5.2
35.7%
36.3%
40.2%
0.0%
0.0%
17.2
14.2
31.4
6.3x
-45%
Triumph
Group
2.45
2.43
2.70
2.69
(1.31)
(0.23)
3.1
2.4
2.2
-8.2%
4.8%
5.8%
3.5%
14.9%
0.2
1.4
1.6
6.5x
-82%
138.0
124.9
152.2
13.3%
7.4%
10.9%
1.9%
7.7%
-62%
Defense
Primes
General
Dynamics
12.65
12.66
12.85
13.67
9.92
13.31
39.4
38.3
40.8
11.8%
11.4%
11.9%
3.5%
36.6%
34.3
12.7
47.0
2.5x
-33%
Huntington
Ingalls
20.85
20.70
14.70
14.98
14.37
14.83
8.9
9.0
9.3
8.3%
11.5%
7.4%
2.4%
19.8%
7.1
1.2
8.3
1.0x
-32%
L3Harris
Technologies
11.60
11.64
13.30
13.19
12.29
13.94
19.1
19.9
20.8
17.4%
18.1%
18.2%
2.1%
29.3%
35.7
6.1
41.9
1.7x
-19%
Lockheed
Martin
24.75
24.26
27.40
26.53
22.16
23.29
59.8
64.4
67.2
14.3%
13.6%
14.2%
3.1%
38.8%
89.0
11.1
100.2
1.1x
-19%
Northrop
Grumman
23.75
23.34
26.95
26.32
19.74
22.40
33.8
35.7
37.8
11.7%
11.2%
11.8%
1.8%
22.2%
50.5
10.5
61.0
2.1x
-13%
Raytheon
11.90
12.66
13.55
14.05
13.14
13.39
29.2
31.3
33.1
16.4%
16.2%
17.1%
3.1%
31.7%
33.9
1.2
35.1
0.2x
-45%
190.1
198.5
209.0
13.3%
13.7%
13.5%
2.7%
29.7%
-23%
Defense
Services
Booz
Allen
Hamilton
3.20
3.17
3.70
3.57
2.96
3.77
6.7
7.5
8.0
9.0%
9.2%
9.4%
1.7%
30.2%
9.1
1.3
10.4
1.7x
-9%
CACI
International
13.00
12.55
14.80
13.93
13.98
17.92
5.0
5.8
6.2
8.4%
8.8%
9.1%
0.0%
0.0%
4.6
1.5
6.1
2.6x
-28%
Leidos
5.70
5.63
6.80
6.47
6.36
7.22
11.1
12.9
14.9
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.8%
23.9%
11.0
2.4
13.4
1.9x
-22%
Science
Applications
International
6.40
6.26
7.50
7.22
7.64
9.38
6.4
7.3
7.8
0.6%
0.2%
0.2%
2.6%
23.1%
3.3
1.9
5.2
2.8x
-35%
29.2
33.4
36.9
4.5%
4.6%
4.7%
1.5%
19.3%
-21%
Defense
(Smid
Cap)
Aerojet
Rocketdyne b
1.57
1.77
1.70
1.96
2.39
2.46
2.0
2.1
2.2
12.0%
12.5%
12.1%
0.0%
0.0%
3.4
(0.3)
3.1
(0.9x)
-11%
Kratos
0.45
0.37
0.53
0.48
(0.05)
0.09
0.7
0.8
0.8
5.1%
4.8%
6.2%
0.0%
0.0%
1.2
0.1
1.3
1.6x
-39%
Maxar
Technologies b
1.82
(0.41)
(1.15)
(0.02)
(2.18)
1.35
1.7
1.7
1.7
5.3%
5.9%
8.0%
0.5%
2.2%
0.5
2.9
3.4
6.6x
-46%
Mercury
Systems
2.11
2.13
2.25
2.43
1.28
1.64
0.7
0.8
0.9
11.7%
11.7%
12.7%
0.0%
0.0%
3.7
(0.2)
3.5
(0.9x)
1%
Average/Total:
S&P
500
5.1
5.4
5.6
8.5%
8.7%
9.8%
0.1%
2.6%
0.6%
-12%
-25%
Pension
Adjustments
Company
Pension
Adjusted
EPS
(PAEPS) CY19E
CY20E
CY21E
CY19E
P/PAEPS CY20E
CY21E
CY19E
EBITDAP
(bn) CY20E
CY21E
EV/EBITDAP
CY19E
CY20E
CY21E
Pension
Adj
FCF CY20E
CY21E
P/PAFCF
CY20E
CY21E
Pension
NPV
Huntington
Ingalls
Lockheed
Martin
Northrop
Grumman Raytheon
10.66
13.76
14.96
18.17
18.97
20.65
15.33
16.18
18.43
9.77
10.27
11.76
15.9x
17.3x
19.4x
12.4x
12.3x
16.6x
18.4x
11.8x
11.3x
15.2x
16.1x
10.3x
0.8
7.7
4.5
3.9
1.0
8.0
4.6
4.2
1.0
8.6
4.9
4.7
10.5x
8.4x
8.0x
13.0x
12.5x
11.7x
13.5x
13.3x
12.6x
8.9x
8.4x
7.5x
8.79
15.21
15.38
7.83
15.36
18.02
16.98
9.98
19.3x
20.7x
19.3x
15.5x
11.0x
17.4x
17.5x
12.2x
$5
$30
$9
$26
Notes:
J.P.
Morgan
ratings:
OW
=
Overweight;
N
=
Neutral;
UW
=
Underweight;
NR
=
Not
Rated.
Price
targets
for
Dec
31,
2020.
SAIC
FY
ends
in
Jan.;
TGI
and
BAH
FY
ends
in
March;
CACI
and
MRCY
end
June;
TDG
ends
Sept.
a.
BBD
stock
price
in
C$
converted
based
on
current
exchange
rate
to
calculate
ratios.
b.
AJRD
and
MAXR
are
covered
by
Ben
Arnstein.
All
EPS
calculations
consis
tent
with
Bloomberg
consensus.
Sources:
Bloomberg,
company
reports,
and
J.P.
Morgan
estimates.
Source:
Bloomberg,
J.P.
Morgan.
Note:
Prices
as
of
March
18,
2020.
Like
many
industries,
commercial
aero
faces
several
challenges
to
both
supply
and
demand
.
.
.
Production
and
supply
chain
disruption
A
temporary
elimination
of
demand
for
an
unknown
duration
Potential
for
recession
to
affect
demand
in
the
medium
term Governments
can
provide
support,
but
what
they
will
seek
in
return
is
unknown There
is
upside
potential
to
our
targets,
but
with
so
many
unknowns
early
in
the
downturn
we
remain
cautious
on Aero Beyond
fundamentals,
comm’l
aero...
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