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TRADING
T OGETHER:
REVIVING
MIDDLE
EAS T
AND
NOR TH
AFRICA
REGIONAL
INTEGRA TION IN
THE
POST-CO VID
ERA
T able
of
Content
Acknowledgements
.............................................................................................................................................................. v
Abbreviations
....................................................................................................................................................................... vi
Ex ecutive Summary
............................................................................................................................................................... 1
Chapter
I:
Coping
with
A
Dual
Shock
in the
Middle
East
and
North A frica
...................................................................... 4
I.1 The
Dual
Shock
.................................................................................................................................. 4
I.2 Macroeconomic
Consequences
............................................................................................................. 7
I.3 P overty
and
Social
Consequences
......................................................................................................... 19
I.4 P olicy
R esponses
............................................................................................................................. 28
Chapter
II:
R eviving Middle
East
and
North A frica R egional
T rade
Integration
in the
P ost-Covid-19
Era
.................. 34
II.1. T rade
Integration
in
MENA:
Time
to
R eset
the
Clock?
................................................................................ 34
II.2. R egional
T rade
Integration
as
a
Growth
Determinant
in
an
Era
of
Elevated
Protectionism
Risks
......................... 36
II.3. L aying
the
Foundation
for
MENA
R egional
T rade
Integration
after
the
P andemic
............................................ 64
Annex
A.
Fiscal
and
Monetary
R esponses
........................................................................................................................ 88
Annex
B.
Quantifying
the
P otential
R eal
Impact
of Covid-19
on
GDP
and
T rade
in MENA
.......................................... 91
Annex
C.
Evolution
of MENA
T rade
and
FDI Flows:
Internal
to
the
R egion and
with
Europe,
in Comparison
with
the
R est of the
W orld
.......................................................................................................................................................... 93
Annex
D .
Identifying
Obstacles to
the
Limited Global
T rade
Integration
of MENA
and
Explaining the
Costs
of T rade
................................................................................................................................................................................ 95
Annex
E.
Services
.............................................................................................................................................................. 106
Annex
F .
Covid-19-R elated
T rade
Measures
................................................................................................................... 107
List
of
Box es
Chapter
I :
Coping
with
A
Dual
Shock
in the
Middle
East
and
North A frica Box
I. 1.
Quantifying
the
Economic
Impacts
of
Covid-19
on
MENA,
based
on
an
Envisgate
Global
Computable
General Equilibrium
Model
................................................................................................................................. 14
Box
I.2.
NO2
Concentration
as
a
Measure
of
Economic
Activity
in
MENA
............................................................ 18
Box
I.3.
Fiscal
P olicy
for
Covid-19
and
Beyond
............................................................................................ 32
Chapter
II:
R eviving Middle
East
and
North A frica R egional
T rade
Integration
in the
P ost-Covid-19
Era
Box
II. 1.
Intraregional
T rade
Integration
..................................................................................................... 45
Box
II.2.
Global
V alue
Chains
—Definition
and
K ey
R egional
Characteristics.
...................................................... 50
Box
II.3.
Global
and
R egional
Overview
of
the
Global
V alue
Chains
Pre
and
P ost-P andemic.
.................................. 52
Box
II.4.
Global
T rends
in
T rade:
How
could
MENA
Benefit?
............................................................................ 55
Box
II.5.
L abor
Mobility
Challenges
.......................................................................................................... 59
Box
II. 6.
Expanding
Digital
T rade
in
MENA
After
Covid-19
............................................................................... 66
Box
II. 7 .
The
Provision
of
R egional
Public
Goods
in
the
P ost
Covid-19
Era"
........................................................... 74
i
List
of
Figures
C hapter
I:
Coping
with
A
Dual
Shock
in the
Middle
East
and
North A frica Figure
I. 1
Daily
New
Cases
in
MENA
........................................................................................................... 6
Figure
I.2
2020
Global
Oil
Demand
Growth,
by
Forecast
Month
........................................................................ 7
Figure
I.3
Spot
and
Forecasts
of
the
Price
of
Brent
Oil
..................................................................................... 7
Figure
I.4
Covid-19
Has
Severely
Affected
T ravel
and
T ourism
in
MENA
............................................................... 8
Figure
I.5
FDI
Inflows
to
MENA
Dropped
Sharply
in
2020
................................................................................ 8
Figure
I. 6
Downgrades
in
Current
Account
and
Fiscal
Balances
(August
2020
minus
December
2019
forecasts)
........... 9
Figure
I. 7
Public
Debt
Dynamics
Forecasts
(forecasts
in
October
2019
and
in
October
2020)
................................... 9
Figure
I.8
Expected
L osses
in
GDP
level
due
to
the
Dual
Shock
(August
2020
minus
December
2019
forecasts)
.......... 12
Figure
I.9
Growth
Downgrades,
Oil
Export
Exposure
and
the
Glob al
Health
Security
Index
.................................... 13
Figure
I. 10
Growth
Forecasts
are
Fluid
and
Uncertain
.................................................................................... 13
Figure
IB1. 1
Sectoral
GDP
Implication
Under
Severe
Global
P andemic
Scenario
................................................... 15
Figure
IB1.2
R eal
Export
Implications
of
the
P andemic
Under
Both
sScenarios
..................................................... 15
Figure
I. 11
Purchasing
Managers ’
Index
...................................................................................................... 16
Figure
I. 12
Visits
to
W orkplaces
in
MENA
(percentage
change
from
January
2020)
................................................ 17
Figure
I. 13
R emittances
from
GCC
to
Developing
MENA
in
2019
......................................................................... 17
Figure
I. 14
Official
Development
Assistance
Flows
from
GCC
to
Developing
MENA9
.............................................. 19
Figure
I. 15
Pre-Covid
P overty
T rend
in
MENA
............................................................................................... 19
Figure
I. 16
Self
Employment
in
MENA
........................................................................................................ 20
Figure
I. 17
Informal
Employment
in
MENA
................................................................................................... 20
Figure
I. 18
Impact
of
the
Dual
Shock
on
the
Number
of
P oor
P eople
in
MENA
...................................................... 21
Figure
I. 19
Impact
of
Covid-19
on
the
Ability
to
Earn
an
Income
........................................................................ 22
Figure
I.20
P ercent
of
W orkers
Who
S topped
W orking
................................................................................... 23
Figure
I.21
Consequences
of
Covid-19
on
the
Ability
to
W ork
........................................................................... 23
Figure
I.22
Share
of
T unsian
W orkers
R eceiving
P ayment
While
Not
W orking,
by
Consumption
Quintile
%
.................. 24
Figure
I.23
Share
of
P opulation
R eceiving
Cash
T ransfers
(%)
.......................................................................... 24
Figure
I.24
Share
of
P opulation
R eceiving
Cash
T ransfers
Across
Prosperity
L evels
(%)
.......................................... 25
Figure
I.25
Household
S trategies
to
Cope
With
Covid-19
................................................................................ 25
Figure
I.26
Changes
in
Food
Consumption
due
to
C-19
in
T unisa,
by
Consumption
Quintile
..................................... 25
Figure
I.27
Share
of
Employment
across
Sectors
in
T unisia,
by
Consumption
Decile
............................................. 26
Figure
I.28
Distribution
of
P er
Capita
Consumption
and
Growth
Incidence
Curves
in
T unisia
................................... 26
Figure
I.29
Summary
of
P overty
Impacts
from
Income
Shocks
and
Degree
of
Project
Mitigation
for
Jordanian Households
........................................................................................................................................ 27
C hapter
II:
R eviving Middle
East
and
North A frica R egional
T rade
Integration
in the
P ost-Covid-19
Era
Figure
II. 1
Share
of
Natio...
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