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2021年美国重振全球经济政策重点(完整)

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2021年美国重振全球经济政策重点(完整)

 

 MEMORANDUM

 ON

 S TRENG THENING

 THE

 US

 EC ONOMY

 T O FO S TER

 REBUILDING

 AND

 REC O VER Y

  T o:

 Chair

 of

 the

 C ouncil

 of

 E c onomic

 A dvisers Fr om:

 K aren

 Dynan

 Oct ober

 2020

  B ack gr ound:

 Global

 economic

 activity

 plunged

 earlier in

 2020

 due

 to

 the fallout

 fr om

 the CO VID - 19

 pandemic.

 While mos t

 countries

 ha v e e xperienced

 some

 r eco v ery ,

 the pace

 at which

 activity

 is

 picking

 up

 has

 slo w ed

 and

 man y

 e xperts

 belie v e that

 it could

 be

 y ears befor e conditions

 fully

 normalize .

 Giv en

 the immense

 macroeconomic

 and

 human

 cos ts associated

 with

 the situation

 and

 the political

 instability

 it gener ates ,

 it is

 imperativ e that the U S go v ernment

 does

 what

 it can

 to

 support

 a

 r obus t

 r eco v ery

 in

 this

 country

 and

 abr oad. The

 United

 S tates

 should

 also

 embr ace the opportunity

 to

 addr ess

 challenges

 that

 w ere holding

 back

 economic

 gro wth—at

 the national

 le v el,

 the global

 le v el,

 and

 the individual household

 le vel— e v en

 befor e the pandemic.

 With these goals

 in

 mind,

 this

 memo

 la ys

 out

 four

 key

 priorities

 for

 U S economic

 policy . Some

 ar e e xplicitly

 linked

 to

 U S engagement

 with

 other countries;

 others

 ar e focused on

 s tr engthening

 the U S econom y

 in

 w a ys

 that

 can

 fos ter U S leadership

 of

 r eco v ery

 and

 r ebuilding

 ar ound

 the w orld.

 The

 priorities

 do

 not

 include

 r educing

 feder al

 budget

 deficits r elativ e to

 those

 pr ojected under

 current laws .

 Giv en

 historically

 lo w

 inter es t

 r ates ,

 the accumulation

 of

 feder al

 debt

 is

 not

 one

 of

 the country ’ s

 bigges t

 economic

 challenges; instead,

 it is

 sufficient

 that

 an y

 incr ease

 in

 discr etionary

 or

 ongoing

 feder al

 spending

 be accompanied

 b y

 incr eases

 in

 feder al

 r e v enue .

 In

 k eeping

 with

 the tr aditional

 and

 appr opriate

 r ole

 of

 the Council

 of

 Economic

 A dvisers (CEA ), these r ecommendations

 ar e based

 on

 sound

 economics

 r ather

 than

 political consider ations .

 The

 CEA

 can

 be

 an

 important

 r esour ce

 to

 this

 adminis tr ation

 if

 it engages with

 leading

 economis ts fr om

 ar ound

 the w orld

 to

 learn

 about

 successful

 policies

 in

 other countries

 and

 brings

 the bes t

 e vidence

 and

 expert analysis

 to

 bear

 on

 policy

 challenges .

  PRIORITY

 1:

 S tr engthen

 automa tic

 fiscal

 stabiliz ers

 M ark et participants

 expect that

 inter es t

 r ates

 on

 go v ernment

 debt

 in

 man y

 countries

 will be

 close

 to

 zer o

 for

 y ears ,

 if

 not

 decades ,

 to

 come .

 A ccor dingly,

 centr al

 banks

 in

 the United S tates ,

 Eur ope ,

 J apan,

 and

 elsewher e will

 ha v e substantially

 less

 ability

 to

 spur

 economic activity

 b y

 cutting

 inter es t

 r ates

 than

 they

 ha v e had

 in

 the pas t

 few

 decades .

 Although nontr aditional

 forms

 of

 monetary

 policy

 can

 fill

 some

 of

 that

 gap

 in

 r ecession- fighting

 K aren

 Dynan ,

 nonresident senior

 f ellow

 a t

 the P et erson

 Institut e

 f or Int erna tional

 E c onomics, is pr ofes sor

 of

 the pr actic e jointly

 a t

 the Harv ar d K ennedy

 School

 and

 the Department of

 E c onomics a t

 Harv ar d.

 She

 serv ed

 as as sis tant secr etary f or

 ec onomic

 polic y

 and chief

 ec onomis t

 a t

 the US

 Department of

 the T r easury

 fr om 20 14

 t o

 20 17 and

 as a

 senior

 ec onomis t in

 the C ouncil of

 E c onomic A dvisers

 fr om 200 3

 t o 2004.

  1750 Massachusetts Avenue,

 NW

  |

  Washington,

 DC

 20036-1903

 USA

  |

  +1.202.328.9000

  |

  www.piie.com

  capacity ,

 fiscal

 policy

 will

 need

 to

 pla y

 a

 much

 lar ger

 r ole

 no w

 and

 for

 the foreseeable futur e .

 In

 the United

 S tates

 and

 man y

 other countries ,

 fiscal

 stimulus

 during

 periods

 of economic

 w eakness

 has

 been

 too

 small,

 too

 short -liv ed,

 and

 too

 susceptible

 to

 short -term political

 wr angling.

 The

 failur e to

 pass

 an

 e xtension

 of

 the CARES

 A ct

 in

 the las t

 three months

 demons tr ates

 this

 viscer ally.

 Ther efor e ,

 automatic

 fiscal

 s tabilizers

 should

 be significantly

 e xpanded.

 U S leadership

 in

 for ging

 international

 consensus

 on

 the importance

 of

 fiscal

 s tabilizers and

 in

 adopting

 s tr onger

 s tabilizers

 is

 crucial.

 P art of

 that

 leadership

 in

 the United

 S tates

 would

 be

 adopting

 tax and

 spending

 rules

 that

 ar e e xplicitly

 linked

 to

 economic

 conditions . F or

 e x ample ,

 indexing

 payr oll

 tax r ates

 to

 s tate-le v el unemployment

 r ates

 would

 be

 both feasible

 and

 effectiv e .

 The

 United

 S tates

 would

 benefit

 dir ectly

 fr om

 other go v ernments’ impro ving

 their automatic

 s tabilizers .

 Consider

 the economic

 benefits

 to

 the U S and

 the w orld

 economies

 if

 automatic

 s tabilizers

 r ather

 than

 prematur e aus terity

 had

 guided

 fiscal policy

 in

 J apan

 betw een

 1998

 and

 2000

 and

 in

 German y

 betw een

 2010

 and

 2012 .

 Global growth

 would

 ha v e been

 s tr onger ,

 and

 it would

 ha v e been

 mor e balanced

 than

 what

 actually occurr ed,

 with

 U S households

 being

 the consumers

 of

 las t

 r esort.

  PRIORITY

 2:

 Bring

 US

 tax a tion

 of

 multina tional

 c ompanies

 mor e

 in

 line

 with that

 of

 other

 adv anced

 ec onomies

 Despite

 significant

 changes

 in

 U S business

 tax rules

 in

 201 7 ,

 the United

 S tates’

 current tax tr eatment

 of

 business

 income

 r emains

 out

 of

 line

 with

 the tr eatment

 in

 man y

 other adv anced

 economies ,

 does

 not

 collect enough

 r e v enue

 to

 support

 needed

 go v ernment spending ,

 and

 does

 not

 fos ter efficiency

 and

 fairness .

 F or

 a

 number

 of

 y ears ,

 man y

 economis ts ha v e adv ocated

 a

 combination

 of

 e xpensing

 of

 in v estment

 cos ts and

 eliminating the deductibility

 of

 inter es t

 e xpenses;

 that

 combination

 would

 tr eat

 differ ent kinds

 of in v estments

 mor e equally

 and

 r educe

 financial

 risk.

 A dopting

 that

 combination

 would

 also enable

 an

 incr ease

 in

 the U S corporate

 tax r ate ,

 which

 would

 bring

 it mor e in

 line

 with

 r ates of

 other countries

 and

 r aise

 needed

 r e v enue .

 M oreo v er ,

 concerted

 international

 efforts

 to

 r educe

 companies’

 ability

 to

 shift

 pr ofits

 to

 lo w er-tax ed

 locations

 would

 both

 r educe dis tortions

 to

 efficiency

 and

 incr ease

 go v ernment

 r e v enue .

  PRIORITY

 3:

 Increase

 US

 infr as tructure

 in v es tment

 Infr as tructur e in v estment

 in

 the United

 S tates

 no w

 r epresents

 a

 smaller

 percentage

 of

 GDP than

 in

 mos t

 y ears

 of

 the pas t

 half

 century ,

 and

 the quality

 of

 U S infr as tructur e is

 declining r elativ e to

 that

 of

 other countries .

 This stinting

 of

 in v estment

 is

 short - sighted

 fr om

 the perspectiv e of

 U S output

 and

 income ,

 and

 it discourages

 for eign

 in v estment

 and

 tr ade

 in the United

 S tates .

 With inter es t

 r ates

 at

 historically

 lo w

 le v els ,

 the case

 for

 a

 significant incr ease

 in

 infr as tructur e spending

 is

 compelling .

 I t

 will

 be

 important,

 ho w e v er ,

 to

 focus additional

 spending

 on

 pr ojects that

 yield

 significant

 r eturns

 (no

 “bridges

 to

 no wher e”)

 and to

 fund

 maintenance

 and

 r epair

 of

 exis ting

 capital

 r ather

 than

 focusing

 solely

 on

 flash y

 new pr ojects .

 Also,

 who

 builds

 U S infr as tructur e is

 less

 important

 than

 getting

 what

 is

 needed built

 and

 getting

 v alue

 fr om

 the dollars

 the United

 S tates

 spends .

 A ccor dingly,

 the United S tates

 should

 allo w

 competitiv e bidding

 for

 construction,

 installation,

 and

 maintenance

 of non-security - sensitiv e parts

 of

 U S infr as tructure;

 the United

 S tates

 should

 also

 insis t

 that for eign

 go v ernments

 allo w

 the same

 opportunity

 for

 U S firms .

  PRIORITY

 4:

 S tr engthen

 US

 social

 pr ogr ams

 The

 consequences

 of

 the pandemic

 for

 employment,

 income ,

 and

 w ell-being

 of

 American families

 ha v e highlighted

 pr eexis ting

 w eaknesses

 in

 U S economic

 and

 social

 sys tems .

 Enabling

 lo w er -

 and

 middle -income

 American

 families

 to

 thriv e in

 the postpandemic

 w orld is

 necessary

 in

 moral

 terms

 and

 also

 for

 achie ving

 gr eater social

 and

 political

 stability .

 S uch stability

 will

 mak e the United

 S tates

 a

 mor e desirable

 partner

 and

 a

 mor e effectiv e leader for

 other nations .

 A ppr opriate

 changes

 include

 pro viding

 mor e comprehensiv e health insur ance ,

 making

 other benefits

 mor e portable ,

 incr easing

 pr otections

 for

 w ork ers ,

 and giving

 children

 in

 lo w er -income

 families

 a

 better chance to

 succeed

 economically .

  ACTIONABLE

 T O-DO

 LIS T :

 • Engage

 with

 leading

 economis ts fr om

 ar ound

 the w orld

 to

 learn

 about

 successful policies

 in

 other countries

 and

 bring

 the bes t

 e vidence

 and

 expert analysis

 to

 bear

 on U S policy

 challenges .

 • E xpand

 automatic

 fiscal

 s tabilizers

 and

 mak e them

 mor e effectiv e b y

 legislating

 triggers for

 starting

 and

 stopping

 that

 ar e e xplicitly

 linked

 to

 economic

 conditions .

 • A dopt

 specific

 changes

 to

 bring

 the U S corporate

 tax r ate

 mor e in

 line

 with

 the r ates

 of other countries

 and

 r aise

 needed

 r e v enue .

 • Incr ease

 infr as tructur e spending ,

 focusing

 on

 pr ojects that

 yield

 significant

 r eturns , including

 maintenance

 and

 r epair

 of

 exis ting

 public

 capital.

 • Pr o vide

 mor e comprehensiv e health

 insur ance ,

 mak e other benefits

 mor e portable , incr ease

 pr otections

 for

 American

 w ork ers ,

 and

 fund

 programs

 that

 will

 giv e children in

 lo w er -income

 American

 families

 a

 better chance to

 succeed

 economically .

 MEMORANDUM

 ON

 PRIORITIES

 FOR

 20 21

 EC ONOMIC

 T ALKS WITH

 CHINA

  T o:

 T he

 Chair

 of

 the

 US

 Delega tion

 for

 Bila teral

 E c onomic

 T alks

 with

 China Fr om:

 Nicholas

 R.

 Lar dy

 Oct ober

 2020

  B ack gr ound:

 Economic

 negotiations

 with

 China

 mus t

 be

 a

 component

 of

 a

 consis tent o v er all

 s tr ategy

 to

 promote

 U S inter es ts ,

 r ather

 than

 one

 ele...

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